KURT'S FEARLESS AND POINTLESS PREDICTIONS PART III: THE AL WEST

Last year: Ok, I have a confession to make. There is one reason, and one reason only, as to why I am doing these predictions. Last year, I predicted that the Seattle Mariners were in a lot of trouble, and were likely to finish in the basement yet again. This caused intrepid blogger James of Wrigleyville to contest my opinion, saying that the Mariners were on the way up. Of course, we all know that the Mariners finished in the basement, failing to win even 70 games. I also predicted a dead heat between the Athletics and Angels, with the Rangers falling on the side of suck. I was fairly right - the Angels actually beat the Athletics, contrary to my opinion, and I actually gave the Mariners too much credit - I implied that they'd be "a lot better." Whoops.

This year: - First place: Oakland Athletics.

I'm going to pick them until they get buried. Last year was a transition season for the A's. They gave up two aces and acquired Jason Kendall. They went on to have a terrible first half, but they battled back and almost won the division. Their replacement pitching was actually pretty damn good - only one man in their starting five sported an ERA above 4, and they have the best, most thrilling young closer in the game today. If their pitching can stay healthy, and if their batters can produce runs, then they should be the team to beat in the AL West.

First place, redux: The Los Anaheim Angels of Whatever

They were a shockingly good team last year, until their rotation fell apart as the post season loomed. Bartolo Colon won 20 games, Vlad Guerrero impaled the ball, and the Angels were competitive. They should be competitive this year too, although I don't think they have what it takes to hold off the A's, or make the wild card.

Better, but still not better enough: Seattle Mariners

It's just a matter of time before the Seattle Mariners are back in the big three-way fight that used to be the AL West. Why is that? First, they have a 19-year-old pitcher by the name of Felix Hernandez who just happened to introduce a hearty can of whup-ass on opponents last year. Second, he's not alone. The Mariners have a lot of young pitching, although 43-year-old Jamie Moyer looks to play another big part in the coming season. Last year, Moyer did the job - he cut his homerun total almost in half, he walked fewer men, and dropped his ERA by almost an entire run. I really respect Jamie, especially when you consider that he's gone 146-76 in the past ten seasons (meaning that he went 59-76 in his first nine). He won't get into the Hall of Fame, but he's definitely been a great pitcher. I don't think he'll have a great 2006, however. But, if he can even only meet the middle between his 2004 and 2005 seasons, then he will be alright, as the Mariners have a respectable offense. Unfortunately, I think Moyer will be gone before the Mariners are ready to return to the post season, but they should still have a respectable year in 2006.

Back to reality: Texas Rangers

The Rangers have a shockingly good offense. If you took that starting lineup and put it on a team with genuine pitching, wow. Watch out. Actually, the Rangers have always had a big offense - ever since the early 90's when Jose Canseco came to town. Hmm. Weird how that works. Shit, even Gary Matthews Jr. had a respectable OPS last year with that team. Maybe Texas is juice central. Well, either that will change, or it won't matter anyway because the pitching remains atrocious. But the offense is good enough to carry them to around 75-80 wins, which (sorry James) just might be good enough to hold off the Seattle Mariners. But, probably not.

So, the AL West looks to be an exciting, action-packed division. The A's and Angels should stay close all year long, and the Mariners might keep it interesting for a few months. I wouldn't be shocked if this division had the best overall record in all of baseball, although I'm not convinced that any of these teams are good enough to carry through the post season to the World Series. Time will tell.

KURT'S FEARLESS AND POINTLESS PREDICTIONS PART II: THE AL CENTRAL

Last Year: Last year, I was way off. I predicted that the Minnesota Twins would take the division, with the Indians and White Sox battling it out for second place. I predicted that the Tigers would finish fourth, but that they could have had a stronger finish if Percival and Ordonez stayed healthy. Then, I stated the obvious: the Royals were the worst team in baseball last year. Actually, I guess I really wasn't way off. I was wrong about the Twins, but I was right that the Sox and Indians would be neck-and-neck for most of the year. How about 2006?

First Place: Minnesota Twins

And why not? The Twins were disappointing in 2005, but they still have one of the best pitchers in the game, and the experts agree that they have another one on the way. They aren't obvious favorites - I'm playing a dark horse by predicting them. Most people would bet on the Sox or Indians, but oh no, not me, I have to play the hand I dealt myself last year. So, although their off season netted them bupkis, they did lose Jock Jones, so they have to do better. Right?

Neck and neck for Wild Card consideration: White Sox and Indians

Again, why not? The Indians are a good young team. The White Sox are division favorites. But, I think the Sox are going to slide in 2006. They've got a lot of hope on a DH with a bad back, a rookie CF, and a rotation that isn't likely to duplicate its 2005 season. The Indians played better than anyone had expected, and they might still be a year away from running the division again. I think they should be competitive all year long, but I don't think they're ready to surpass the first-place team of the Central - whoever that is.

Wha' Happen'd?: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers had good production from Magglio Ordonez - when he was healthy. They actually had a tremendously talented bullpen last year - but no closer, because Percival proved fragile and has probably thrown his last ML pitch. They managed to squeeze 129 games out of Pudge Rodriguez - he's due for a shortened season. They have brought in 51-year-old Kenny Rogers. Oops, did I say 51? I meant 41, but it might as well be the same thing. Judging by his erratic behavior last year, he might miss the greenies. They acquired Todd Jones to be their closer. He's old and I have a feeling he won't be productive. In other words, it might be a rough year in Detroit. But they won't lose 100 games again.

Well, at least they tried: Kansas City Royals

No one was busier than the Royals this off-season. Scott Elarton will be topping their rotation. Mark Redman might be their #2. Mark Grudzielanek is their new second baseman. Doug Mientkiewicz their new first baseman. Reggie Sanders will be patrolling right field. And flames will sooner shoot out of my ass before the Royals get within 10 games of .500. They might have enough to pass the Tigers. They shouldn't lose 100 games. But they're a long ways away from winning 80. This is an organization I'm really rooting for. I like small market teams like Kansas City, but they really need to find a GM who can give them a new, unique approach toward winning. Hey, guys, I'm available. Hah!

So, in conclusion, it might actually be a three-team race for the top of the division. Minnesota, Chicago, and Cleveland are all going to compete. Detroit and Kansas City simply aren't. However, I'd be shocked - shocked, I say - if the World Championship team for 2006 comes from this division. Regardless, there should still be some interesting baseball.

KURT'S FEARLESS AND POINTLESS PREDICTIONS PART I: THE AL EAST

Last Year: Last season, I predicted that the Boston Red Sox would take the division, with the Yankees finishing a distant second. I predicted 75 wins for the Orioles, and a dead heat for last between the D-Rays and Blue Jays.

I wasn't totally off. The Yankees forced their way to the top of the division yet again, tying the Red Sox with 95 wins. The Blue Jays hurdled the Orioles to win 80 games, and the O's did win 74. The D-Rays surprised no one by finishing last.

So, what about This Year?: The Yankees tried to improve. They acquired Johnny Damon to leadoff. Jason Giambi had a resurgence. Their offense is loaded. Their rotation isn't anything to scoff at. They still have one of the best closers in the history of baseball. But they're older. They didn't do enough to improve. Therefore:

AL East Division Winner: Boston Red Sox

One of these days, I'll be right about the Red Sox. So, what did they do this off season? They acquired Coco Crisp - not a pure leadoff guy like Damon, but he's young, talented, fast, and able to hit. He also has a hilarious name. They acquired Josh Beckett from the Marlins. I've been interested in Beckett's career since his rookie year, but I obviously hate him for what happened in 2003. Their rotation should be solid. Schilling, Clement, Beckett, Wakefield, and whoever they fill into the fifth spot (Arroyo? Wells?) is nothing to scoff at, if these guys stay healthy. But, will Foulke be able to close again? Do they have a closer in general? Will Julian Tavarez continue his descention into insanity?

Second by a long shot: New York Yankees

With apologies to the Blue Jays, the Yankees are still a better team. They could have controversy and collapse, and they'd still probably fall into a one-game playoff for the Wild Card. As much as it pains me to say it, the Yankees are a playoff fixture that aren't about to fall away into the second division of the AL East.

All that money and nothing to show: Toronto Blue Jays

They were splashy. They made huge signings. They made big trades. They should finish above .500 for the year. They aren't about to win their division. Here's the problem I see with the Blue Jays: you can't quick fix your way into the playoffs. AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan were not worth it. they will get hurt, if not this year, then next year. I'm no baseball expert, but BJ Ryan's pitching mechanics hurt my shoulder just by watching him pitch. The scary thing is that the Jays will have even more money to throw at free agents during the next off season, and if they can keep it together until 2007, they should make the playoffs. But in the long run, the money they spent wasn't worth it. Two or three years from now, the Jays will be hurting again.

75 more wins: Baltimore Orioles

I guess I'm a little confused. How did the Orioles improve this off season? Ok, true, they brought in the best pitching coach in the history of the game. They also dropped one ex Cub, but mistakenly picked up two more. I have nothing against Corey Patterson or LaTroy Hawkins - in fact, I expect Hawkins to excel in Baltimore - but I have a strong feeling that Leo Mazzone is going to look a little less brilliant when he doesn't have two or three future Hall of Famers pitching on his roster.

That basement must be furnished by now: Tampa Bay Devil-Rays

I have a suspicion that the D-Rays will get better someday. In fact, AL West aside, they might have the best record of a last place team in the entire league. They are a young team with a lot of budding prospects on the way. They might even have a handful of really exciting hitters whose names we'll get to know very well in about five years, when they're playing for the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox. But 2006 is not their year, even if they change their name to the lame-ass "Tampa Bay Rays." Lame.

So. The AL East should be an exciting division. The Blue Jays won't be making the playoffs in 2006, but they should keep it interesting until July or August, when the Yankees and Red Sox pull away. The Orioles might improve, but probably not. And the D-Rays are actually going to be an exciting young team ... who will still finish last in the division. Up next, the ever-exciting AL Central.