LET'S TAKE A POLL

Ok. Let's pretend that you are the general manager of a baseball team. Your team cost you say, 50 million last year and they played disappointing baseball. But good news! You have a new owner who is increasing the team's payroll to 100 million! Wow!

So, what do you do? Do you go out and sign a handful of valuable contributors who will help you rebuild your team for years of future dominance?

Or maybe you sign that one big free agent at a little above market cost in order to establish a team core that will help lead you toward victory in the coming decade?

Or do you go completely batshit insane and sign a few big named free agents to some absurd contracts with the hopes of drawing the interest of other free agents in future seasons?

If you are the GM of the Toronto Blue Jays (or Chuck of Ivy Chat) you go with number three. Why? Because if you really think your team is only a few big names away from winning the World Series, then you apparently have to go out and get those big names at all costs, even with the threat of being handcuffed to those players long after they become decrepid corpses that are still forced to trot out there every game. After all, there's no gaurantee that the market will be better next year anyway. And even if it IS better, no one wants to play for your team, so you need to overpay.

With that in mind, the Jays have paid BJ Ryan 46 million for perhaps two years of bullpen dominence followed by the almost certain shoulder and elbow surgery that will probably limit him to 50 appearances over the last three years of his contract. And they are also on the verge of signing 34-year-old right fielder Brian Giles to a 5 year 55 million dollar deal. Interesting fact: when you're 34 years old, unless you are on the juice, you are going to begin declining. You will stop hitting homeruns. Your bat speed will slow. Chances are, you won't be worth 11 million a year by the time you turn 37 (assuming you're worth 11 million now). But good news for Giles, he'll be making that much money until he's nearing 40.

Plus the Jays are pursuing AJ Burnett, who they are sure to heap tons of money upon as well.

My question is: are they that sure they will win the World Series in 2006 if they acquire these three players? And, if not 2006, are they so sure they will win in 2007? Because I am pretty sure that 2008, 2009, and 2010 are going to be messy in Toronto. When you have maybe as much as 35-40 million locked up on three players who may only have two good years left in them, your team will not be able to compete.

Of course, Chuck wants the Cubs to ignore that obvious fact. He's probably wondering why they didn't pony up 46 million a year for BJ Ryan. Maybe he thinks the Cubs' window is closing. I don't know. But chances are, neither does he.

GET YOUR FORKS, THE FISH ARE GOING TO BBQ UP A SALE

(otherwise known as an attempted witticism about the Marlins having a firesale)

ESPN is reporting that in order to keep Dontrell Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins are looking to trade Carlos Delgado and Josh Beckett (and will be sticking Mike Lowell with whatever team takes Beckett off their hands).

If the Marlins manage to unload these players, which I'm sure they could, then it seems to me like Juan Pierre might suddenly be a lot less available. After all, Beckett, Lowell, and Delgado will probably make a combined $20-$25 million next year, depending on what Beckett gets in arbitration and what sum of money Delgado has agreed to take in the second year of a huge multi-year contract (he only made 4 million in 2005).

I always liked Josh Beckett, although I came to hate him after the 2003 NLCS. Also, while he'd fit right in with your staff of young arms, he would fit right in with our plethora of often-injured... well, young arms. So, I don't think the Cubs have anything to gain from acquiring these guys from the Marlins, but I do feel that Pierre might be taken off the trading block if Beckett, Lowell, and Delgado are traded.

Good thing there are plenty of other options available.

EYRE OF THE TIGER

As I expected, the Cubs have made a big splash by signing veteran reliever Scott Eyre. Eyre is a 33-year-old lefty who's been pretty good in the last three or so years, and he should be an excellent 7th inning guy as long as Dusty doesn't insist on making him face lefties only.

Eyre was spot on last year for the Giants. He went 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA and had a WHIP of 1.08. Yes, he's on the wrong side of 30, but he's still going to be one of the best reliever signings that Hendry has made in his tenure. Why? Because he's not that old. He's 33. Take a look at the free agent pitchers out there. There are probably two or three GOOD relievers under the age of 30. Then, there are probably two or three good relievers under the age of 35. All the rest (maybe half a dozen or more) are 35 or older. As far as good lefties go, Eyre is the best Hendry will be able to do.

There was also concern regarding how much Eyre is making. According to the news sources, he's making 11 million over two years ... but that's not taking into account his player option. He will in fact be making 11 million over three seasons, which is actually a little cheaper than I assumed he'd command. So, kudos to Hendry on this signing. Let's see more in the coming weeks!

In other news, Chipper Jones is a real team player. He's gone to the Braves and retooled his contract so that, rather than make 17 million next season, he'll only make 11 million. What a guy. It's too bad there aren't more jerks out there who feel the way he does. You see, he knows the Braves are cutting salary, and he was afraid that his salary might prevent the Braves from bringing back Raffy or pursuing a legitimate closer like Trevor Hoffman, since Kyle Farnsworth is an asshat.

So, the Braves just might give the Cubs a run for their shortstop. We're doomed if that happens. Let's hope that Jim Hendry can shock us all by outbidding the Braves, and let's hope he does it quickly.

THAT DREADED FIFTH YEAR

News has been pretty slow on the major league scene, although the free agent market should start exploding within the next 30 days or so. Of course, the biggest Cubs news story remains centered around Raffy Furcal, who is demanding a 5 year contract at around 10 million a year. The Cubs may think that's too much though, according to the Tribune.

I can see their point of view, but I for one am pretty sick of the Cubs always losing out on free agents because they are unwilling to commit to that fifth year. Look, the guy is still in his 20's. If he wants five years instead of four, and if that fifth year guarantees that he comes to your team, you make the move. Why? Because if you are tired of the guy after three years, chances are you will find somebody to take him off your hands. I would agree to a fifth year.

According to the same article, the Cubs are interested in a 27-year-old Texas Rangers outfielder by the name of Kevin Mench. Texas isn't looking to unload Mench, but they'll consider offers for him. In the past two seasons, Mench has hit 66 doubles, 51 homers, driven in 144 RBI, walked 88 times and struck out 131 times. These aren't game-breaking numbers, but the guy is only 27 and he'd definitely fill a spot in the lineup of the Cubs acquired him.

According to a separate article on the Tribune's website, if the Cubs can't get Furcal, they'll pursue Juan Pierre of the Marlins and will be satisfied with Cedeno starting at shortstop. Of course, we all know just how likely it is that Cedeno would actually start over Neifi.

I realize that Jim Hendry doesn't read blogs. Well, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't. But on the off chance that he does read blogs, and that he has stumbled across mine, I'm just going to say this:

Why would you place a higher virtue on maintaining your salary structure, rather than on brining in the best players available to help your team win the World Series?

If you can afford Raffy Furcal for four years at 9 or 10 million a year, I don't see how having him for five years will upset the team's salary structure. You're not playing for year five. Your playing for next year, because if you fail to win next year you lose your job. You can always trade Furcal if you need extra salary room. It's astonishing to me how the Cubs never go out and get any of the players they need. Rather, they go out and get the players they think they can afford. Is it really surprising, then, that the Cubs haven't reached the World Series since decades before the free agent market took hold in baseball?

I will be sorely disappointed in this team if they don't do the most that they could do to win. Maybe that's why I'm so used to disappointment when it comes to the Cubs.

SPEWING VITRIOL

It's nice to know that people read my blog. Especially one Al Yellon, writer of Bleed Cubbie Blue, which is in my opinion the best Cubs blog on the net (sorry Cub Reporter, but you've sort of sucked for the last year or so, but don't worry, you're still better than me).

Then again, Mr. Yellon might just have been reading this blog because he was looking for negative reactions to the signing of Neifi, which I conveniently provided for him with my whole "spew in my mouth" comment. But that's not the whole story here. I'm honestly fine with Neifi Perez being a Cub, as long as he's the bench player he's supposed to be. My problem is with Dusty Baker, who I do not believe to be capable of keeping Neifi on the bench.

I'm also perfectly okay with Jim Hendry. Really. I know that a lot of Cub fans are quite frankly pissed with his performance last off season, but I think he made the most of a pretty bad hand. If he failed to sign any of the lucrative free agents out there, that might have been because Trib brass wouldn't open the wallet for him. This off season will be the one that not only determines whether the Cubs will win a championship any time soon, but also whether or not Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker will be back for future seasons.

Mr. Yellon, the problem is that if the Cubs fail to sign Raffy Furcal, then they will be left with two choices. Either they can start Ronny Cedeno at short - the choice many Cub fans endorse - or they can use Neifi in a starter's capacity. Unfortunately, I believe that if it came down to those two choices, Dusty Baker would make sure Ronny was a starter - in Triple A Iowa. But that would start a snowball effect. You see, Dusty Baker believes that Neifi was the team MVP last year (sorry, Derrek Lee). He also saw no problem with batting Neifi in front of Derrek for a very good portion of the season.

The consequence, as I'm sure you know, was that Derrek batted something like .335 with about 50 doubles, 45 homers, and a whopping 107 RBI! How the hell is that possible?

So, my concern is not over the return of Neifi. My concern is over how he will be used. You will have to try very hard to convince me that Dusty wouldn't start him over Ronny Cedeno. But if it isn't an issue, if the Cubs sign Raffy Furcal and either keep Todd Walker or upgrade at second base, then I'm happy Neifi is back. But like I said in my last post, that's a big if at this point.

BAD NEWS NEIFI

It was just another ordinary day when I plopped down in front of my computer, fired up the internet, and spewed in my mouth at the discovery that Neifi Perez will be back for two more glorious seasons.

But it's not just that Neifi is coming back. He's coming back at 2.5 million a year, with a manager who not only wants to start him, but Dusty wants to bat his .260 OBP ass in the leadoff spot.



The graphic says it all.

Neifi doesn't have to be a bad signing, however. Really. Honest. All the Cubs have to do is ensure that Neifi doesn't get more than 150 at bats in a season. They can do this by signing Raffy Furcal. They can do this by brainwashing Dusty into starting Ronny Cedeno. Or by acquiring a veteran starting second baseman. Or by... (get ready for this one) ... firing Dusty Baker, as he is perhaps the only idiot out there who would start Neifi 150 times in a season.

But this is the all new, all positive Cub Fan Nation. I'm going to take a bold step and assume that yes, Dusty Baker will use Neifi in the role he's best suited for - super sub. I'm still disappointed by how much the Cubs are paying Neifi, but if Neifi is just a backup next year, it's no harm done.

If Neifi is a backup next year.

If.

$#%@% INTERNET

I have spent the last two hours composing an article about my take on the free agent market. I'm going to go ahead and claim that this article had some great in depth analysis about a variety of players I wouldn't mind seeing the Cubs pursue. Unfortunately my explorer crashed and the article is now dust.

So, I'll just sum it all up. I think the Cubs need to avoid going after old relief pitchers. There are a handful of relievers in their early 30's who would do just fine for the Cubs, like Boston's Mike Myers, Cleveland's Scott Sauerbeck (who limited lefty hitters to something like a .167 avg last year), Philly's Ugueth Urbina, San Francisco's Scott Eyre, and Oakland's Octavio Dotel (who wouldn't help the Cubs out until 2007 because of how he's recovering from surgery).

Then I took a look at available bench players. Again, I have a particular school of thought on this, which I have voiced perhaps here and definitely elsewhere. The Cubs need to deal with the fact that if Dusty Baker has a veteran bench player, he will almost always start him over a rookie. That horrible mentality is why Todd Hollandsworth was patrolling left field for a couple of months in 2005, and why Neifi Perez unfortunately batted more than 500 times - most of that at or near the top of the batting order. So, the Cubs have a few choices here. They can either screw Dusty and use only young players from their minor league system, or they can go out and get the best bench players available and hope to God that Dusty doesn't decide Matt Murton and Ronny Cedeno have earned nothing and need more time learning on the bench.

Assuming the Cubs go the free agency route, I would respectfully suggest they acquire Boston's Tony Graffanino, who is perhaps the best bench player in the game today, and also Milwaukee's Wes Helms, who quite frankly will probably land a starting gig somewhere. Otherwise, the Cubs will have to consider some of the old standbys, like Jose Vizcaino, Miguel Cairo, and so on.

As far as outfielders go, I would not be opposed to the return of Todd Hollandsworth so long as Dusty refrains from the temptation of starting him. Otherwise, Jose Cruz Jr. is an interesting choice (if he could accept a backup role), and I'm still very fond of the idea of bringing back Eric Young, who apart from having a decent bat and good speed (especially for his age) is also a positive clubhouse influence.

But that leaves the starters. Which starters do I want the Cubs to pursue? First and foremost, I still wish they'd give Nomar another try. He's got a big bat and I think he's a great guy in the clubhouse. But I get the feeling Nomar will have to come to Wrigley Andre Dawson style with a blank contract that he's already signed in order to get Jim Hendry to bring him back.

Brian Giles is an interesting choice for right field, but I think he's declining and I would rather see someone younger. He would be a great guy to have in the #2 spot in the batting order, but at this point I feel like he's overrated.

I like the idea of giving Felix Pie a shot in the coming season, but knowing that he probably won't be ready, I'd like the Cubs to ignore Johnny Damon, Preston Wilson, and Jacque Jones and go for the temporary solution in fireplug Kenny Lofton. Lofton can still leadoff, he still has good speed, and if you platoon him with EY, then you have a deadly hitter at leadoff.

As far as Raffy Furcal goes, I say go for it. Furcal is still young enough to be good for a few years and he has a lot of talent. I'm a bit nervous, though, because he seems to be a guy who likes drinking, and we know what happened to the last fledgling alcoholic who came to Chicago *cough*turd*cough*. If Furcal can get used to playing day games, he's a decent choice.

Otherwise, I think the Cubs should look at acquiring some guys through trades. Over at Goat Riders sometime today, I'm going to take a look at some of the players who might be available depending on the route that this off season takes.

I'm still bitter about explorer crashing. That was a lot of work that I just lost.

NO NEWS YET

What's wrong with those Cubs, eh? It's already November 4th and they still haven't made any moves.

Some ex-Cubs are in the news, however. Matt Lawton has been suspended for steroid abuse. He must've really been using them hard when he was a Cub, what with his terrific .244 batting average and his inexplicable inability to draw walks anymore. Good one on you, mate.

Actually the biggest piece of Cubs news out there right now is regarding Kerry Wood's charity bowling event. Woody is rehabbing his right shoulder, so he might bowl left handed. But that's not the big news. This is the big news:

Wood, 28, said he realizes no one is going to feel sorry for him, but the annual expectations can take a mental and emotional toll.

"Money has nothing to do with it for me," Wood said. "Some people might think that way, but I can't control that. This is not life and death. We are playing a game. Obviously I don't hope to get hurt every year. I don't start every season and say, 'Gee, I hope I get hurt in July this season.' That's not part of my plan."

Emphasis added by me. First, there's no way this won't translate into more "Carrie Wood is a pussy" comments by fans. Second, Corey Patterson got in trouble for saying basically that same thing.

However, I don't hold anything against him. (See? The new Cub Fan Nation - optimistic til the last drop!) We all know that Kerry Wood fiercely wants to win. I can easily imagine that he'd be feeling some pressure by now regarding how often he's hurt. In fact, I get the feeling that a lot of baseball players feel this kind of pressure, so it's nothing to criticize Wood over. It seems more that it's just a Chicago journalist trying to start trouble.

Anyway, unlike other Cubs who have "felt the pressure," like LaTroy Hawkins and Corey Patterson, I don't think Kerry Wood would buckle under. I get the feeling that a hostile crowd won't effect him that much, except it might piss him off and help him with his focus. But I could be wrong.

Also, the whole "we are playing a game" line. You know he wants to win. I know he wants to win. Any fan who says otherwise and tries to blow it out of proportion needs to stop smoking the crack and get back to work.

And that's all I have to say about it for now.