WHERE I'VE BEEN

I haven't been blogging a ton lately here at the Cub Fan Nation, but that's not really because of disinterest. Mostly, I've been blogging daily over at Goat Riders. So, if you read this site, but you don't read Goat Riders, I say to you: what's wrong with you? Go to GROTA!

I'm pretty well ready to wave the white flag on this season. Last night's loss was just another heart breaker. Jim Hendry needs to decide right now: what's it going to be? A desperate attempt to trade for 2005, or a more reasonable attempt to start reloading for 2006?

One thing for certain: Dusty Baker needs to go. I no longer believe he brings anything tangible to the team. Sorry, Al Yellon, Dusty Baker is a detriment.

I think the best indication will be if the Cubs actually do manage to nab Adam Dunn or Austin Kearns. Both are going to be good, and for a long time. But if the Cubs get Dunn, they're trying to win this year. If they get Kearns, it means they're loading up for next year. Either would be good to have on this team.

The next week and a half will be very telling. I just hope to hear only good things, one way or the other.

KERRY WOOD

I've probably said it before, and I'll say it again. We are looking at Kerry Wood's swan song as a Cub. He might be back next year, the final year of his contract, but could the Cubs possibly want him back after that? It's injury after injury after injury, and last night was no exception. Wood left the game after 3 innings and 66 pitches. Dusty then proved he was the idiot we all know and loathe by pitching Mike Remlinger in two innings because he didn't want to use too many bench players early in the game.

That left the Cubs with a 5-0 deficit and it was just a matter of time before it became "game over" after that.

A lot of people believe that this means the Cubs won't be able to trade their young arms because they might be needed if Wood is out again. So, Rich Hill might stay a Cub, so might Sergio Mitre.

Well, I don't want to see Hill dealt anyway, but I think Glendon is more effective as a starter anyway, and that's where he belongs if Wood is out for a period of time.

Hell, maybe the Cubs should trade for another starting pitcher. Then, maybe they should put Wood on waviers.

Then maybe we can stop worrying about this BS and worry instead about getting to the playoffs!

WHO ARE THESE GUYS?

They're 7-1 in their last 8 games. They've outscored their opponents 59-21 during that time (that's 7.375 runs per game against 2.625 runs per game). They've hit as a unit. In fact, Cubs pitchers are riding a six-game hitting streak.

Sure, it's true that they've done most of the damage against two teams that will only see the playoffs if they own cable TV back at their homes, but the point is that you're supposed to do tons of damage against bad teams. The point is, you're supposed to dominate the Pirates and the Reds. If you can't beat those teams, then you can't beat the good ones, either.

So, the Cubs are almost back to where they were before the atrocious 8-game losing streak. I guess that has to count for something.

TRADE TIME

It seems as if Jason Dubois is headed for a better place - the American League, where he'll no longer have to stumble around in the outfield like a lost boy stuck in a field at night time. The good news is, the Cubs actually got talent in return for Dubois, by the comical name of Jody Gerut. Gerut is 27 until September. During his rookie season, he hit 22 homers and drove in 75 RBI while batting .279 with a .336 OBP. (Note to Jody: if you're one of those internet-savvy guys who's googled your own name to see what people are saying about you since the trade, the Cub Fan Nation - or Goat Riders of the Apocalypse - would love to interview you, and I'd even apologize for calling your name comical. Just leave a comment or find my Email address somewhere on this page. Thanks!)

The good news on Gerut is that he's defensively sound, he has some power (although he's only hit one homerun in 138 at bats this year), he walks a fair amount (54 times in 481 at bats in 2004), and he doesn't strike out very often (59 times last year, 14 times this season). He'll never be a game-breaking offensive threat, but he's probably an upgrade from Dubois and he should be a solid bat off the bench. Congrats to Hendry for finally making a trade - here's to hoping that Austin Kearns, or Adam Dunn, or hell, Ken Griffey Jr. will be on the way soon!

One other item of note: the Cubs might have bullpen help on the way in Scott Williamson, who is nearing the end of his rehabilitation. Williamson was signed by the Cubs this off season ala Ryan Dempster - in other words, he had off-season arm surgery and the Cubs knew he wouldn't be ready until July. If Williamson comes back strong, it might even negate the need to acquire a setup man.

Hell, Williamson and Garciaparra could be the pitcher-hitter trade that Hendry is looking for. But time will tell.

CUBS OFFENSE STAYS AT HOME

Is anyone ever really surprised when a team scores 11 runs one day and no runs the following? Surprised, probably not, disappointed, absolutely.

It always scares me a little when any pitcher can completely confuse a lineup. Especially when it's a rookie pitcher, like Zach Duke - 22 years old, a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings pitched, 4 walks to 21 strikeouts. I guess Pirates fans have something to look forward to.

Now that the hopes for a sweep are gone, the Cubs can only pray for a series win - something they need to have against teams like Pittsburgh. Luckily, they're going against 9-game-loser Kip Wells, and the Big Moose will be representing the Cubs on the hill. Wells is a half-decent pitcher who actually wouldn't look bad as the #5 guy in the Cubs rotation, especially since it'd mean the Cubs wouldn't have to face him anymore. Because in spite of his current 6-9 record and high ERA, Kip Wells has a career record of 3-1 (in 12 starts) with a 2.43 ERA in 77.2 innings pitched. Yow.

Indeed, the Kipster has always had the Cubs' number, although his record reflects his team's inability to put it away for him. As for Carlos, he's 5-2 with a 3.60 ERA against the Pirates, so at least the Cubs have a chance.

But chin up, Cubs fans, I get the feeling the offense will come out swinging today.

Then again, that might just be the problem.

HOW SWEEP IT WOULD BE

In the second inning today, Pirates second baseman J Castillo smacked his 7th homerun of the season off of Kerry Wood, causing a groan across the Cub Fan Nation. "Oh no," we all thought. "Not again!" After all, it was the same old tune we'd heard pretty much every time Kerry Wood had started in the past two years. A solid first inning, then trouble in the second. A good third and fourth, then an exit in the fifth. This was Bad Kerry, the one we were hoping would be gone for good once his mechanics got straightened out during his injury rehab.

Except we were wrong. Wood was Good. He went six strong innings, needing a mere 75 pitches to do the job (48 of which were for strikes). He allowed only two hits, walked none, and struck out five. And in the process, the Cubs ripped Josh Fogg apart (as usual)to the tune of 11 hits off of 16 runs. Aramis hit his 20th of the year, Jerry Hairston hit a grand slam that just barely curved around the foul pole, and the Cubs bullpen threw three shutout innings in relief to silence the Pittsburgh offense.

Tomorrow, the Cubs go for the sweep with Greg Maddux leading the charge. I could go on about the old cliche of the Cubs saving some runs for tomorrow's game, but I'm just happy that Wood had a good game and that the offense remains alive.

Hopefully Baker will give Murton a chance to play tomorrow, although monkeys may sooner take up residence under my bed. Regardless, a sweep would be great, and forward momentum can never come too late. As long as it's still July. Or something.

CALL ME CRAZY

...but baseball sure can be fun sometimes. Take for example, when your ace goes out, throws two-hit ball, and strikes out 10 in 8 innings. Now, Mark Prior just needs to do that 15 or so more times this season, and maybe the Cubs will be in good shape.

Assuming Kerry Wood gets his act together. And Carlos Zambrano keeps his act together. And the lineup produces. And the Cubs acquire some players.

Ok, it's a lot to assume.

Regardless of that, we all knew the Cubs needed to come out with guns blazing. Who knew that the big guns would be Prior and... Henry Blanco? Huh? But that's right. Good ol' Hank White went 2 for 4 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI. Prior went 2 for 3 with an RBI.

The Cubs themselves only walked 3 times in the game, 1 fewer than the Bucks. They'll need to be a bit more patient at the plate tomorrow.

Regardless, good to see an easy win. Tomorrow would be a nice follow up!

THE GOOD NEWS

The Cubs had a rough July. Really rough. Like getting dragged across sand-paper rough. But there is good news. The rest of July should be nice and easy. They'll have to play St. Louis (who we all want them to play a lot anyway), and otherwise just a bunch of teams under .500 for the month.

Then in August, the Cubs will be playing Philly, the Mets, the Reds, Cardinals, Astros, Rockies, Braves, Marlins, and Dodgers. Not the most intimidating schedule I've ever seen.

Then in September, the Cubs will play the Pirates a few times, the Cardinals twice, Giants, Reds, Brewers, and the Astros twice. It might be a little tough, but that depends on how the Astros are playing by September.

I'm not saying the Cubs are going to have an easy road and a lot of wins, but they are in position to put the horror of the recent 8-game losing streak behind them. The pitching is there, the hitting could be there, and from that point, the Cubs are only a few hot streaks away from the Wild Card lead.

So, let's keep the faith. Things are going to get better.

...maybe.

SECOND HALF BLUES

It's pretty sad that our second-half hopes soley rely on the massive suckage of the rest of the National League. But were it not for the shoddy play of just about every other team in baseball, we Cubs fans would be spending more time talking about the coming football season and how the Bears (or Bills, in my case) are going to blow it this time.

But, anyway, since this is a baseball blog, and since it's the only thing that interests me right now, I'm going to take a long look at the Cubs. The Good, The Bad, and The Corey - er, the ugly. I meant "the ugly."

First, this is the lineup that should've been in play every day a month ago:

Hairston
Walker
Lee
Burnitz
Ramirez
Barrett
Hollandsworth
Neifi!

Hairy Jerry, the most unloved-Cub, is batting .276 with a .361 OBP. He's on pace for 391 at bats (tho' he should obviously see more unless the Cubs make some trades). In those 391 at bats, he's also on pace for 28 doubles. Not bad. But more importantly, Hairston has an OBP of .389 from the leadoff spot. That's more than 100 points higher than Corey Patterson or Neifi Perez - two players Dusty sought to use for what, the first three months of the season? Moron.

Hairston isn't alone in the top-of-the-order goodness. Todd Walker is batting .304 with a .358 OBP. Also on pace for a mere 300 or so at bats (but will see more in the second half), Walker is on pace for at least 24 doubles. A potent doubles-combination at the top of the order is something this team needs. It also doesn't hurt to have two guys who can actually get on base for Derrek Lee.

I don't even need to say anything about Derrek. He's the MVP right now. God knows what would happen to the Cubs even if Derrek only does the following in the second half: .275 AVG, 14 homers, 43 RBI, 6 steals, .362 OBP. Those are basically Derrek's career averages. (Remember that he's raised his career batting average by something like 9 points this year). If Derrek put up those numbers, he'd still finish the year with the following totals: .327 AVG, 41 HR, 115 RBI, 16 steals, and a .436 OBP. It's amazing to think that I would be disappointed if any Cub "only" put up those numbers.

Burnitz, meanwhile, has been a very pleasant surprise. He's a hard-nosed player, and has proven to be the perfect replacement for Selfish Sammy Sosa. He's also out-hitting Sammy by a good bit. He's on pace for 26 homers, 89 RBI, is batting .276, and while he strikes out a good bit, it's still a lot less than Sammy even during his prime.

Aramis has also turned into an All Star this year, after an atrocious April. He's batting .298 and is on pace for 35 homers and 106 RBI, which would put him right where he was last season. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Ramirez could put up even bigger and better numbers in the second half. He might chase 40 homers.

Michael Barrett, to me, is the modern day Jody Davis. He's a guy who can hit and will hit, but not a guy you could ever build an offense around. He's also a guy who has nearly doubled his walks total in the last week. He walked 7 times, increasing his season numbers to 18. He's batting .264, but I think he can hit his way back up into the mid .270's or even around .280. He's also on pace for 17 homeruns, which makes him a good catcher for the Cubs.

That brings us to the men who shouldn't be there: Todd Hollandsworth and Neifi Perez. Sure, Hollandsworth had a big June - he batted .360 in 75 at bats. He's upped his season totals to .269, but his OPS is still that of a bench player. Therefore, either Dusty needs to give Muron a chance (not gonna happen) or Jim needs to cobble together a blockbuster deal for Adam Dunn. (I still think Dunn-Griffey would be great for the Cubs, but I also think monkeys won't be shooting out of my ass any time soon). If Hendry can fill the hole in left field, then the Cubs offense will be solid if not unspectacular past the #5 or #6 spot in the lineup. As for Neifi, the guy batted .229 in June (mostly as a #2 hitter), and is 8 for 41 in July (.195). He's still doing better than Sammy, but he truly belongs back on the bench. Maybe Ronny Cedeno should have a fair shot, or maybe the Cubs should just bunker down and hope for Nomar. But Neifi should find himself back on the bench at the start of the second half. At least for a few weeks, anyway.

But the problems really haven't been the Cubs hitters, aside from Corey Patterson. the problems have lied with Dusty Baker's inability to make up the correct lineup, and with the pitching staff's tremendous first-half disappointment.

That's the absurd thing about baseball. You'll never know what will happen. Your first baseman, a career .266 hitter, could go on an offensive splurge unlike anything this side of Ruth or Bonds. Or your ace pitchers - all of whom could have ERAs under 3 - could get hurt, get rocked, and look ugly for perhaps an entire baseball season.

Look, I don't think the Cubs are a great baseball team. I wouldn't be shocked if they failed to win 81 games or more. But I also know that they have an ungodly huge world of untapped potential. They have pitchers (as in plural) who, on any given night, can completely shut down the opposition. They have hitters who can dominate an opposing pitcher with astonishing ease. What they don't have is cohesion. They aren't a unit. They don't cover for each other. They quit after six innings sometimes.

It's possible for the Cubs to turn things around. Perhaps it's even probable, as long as they don't give up on themselves. Hendry will need to make at least one trade. He absolutely needs a setup man. He needs a better offensive choice out in left field. Cubs fans are calling for his head, and maybe they're right. He is the man who gave us Dusty, Macias, LaTroy, and Hollandsworth. But I really don't think he's a man of inaction. If there were available players right now, someone would've gotten them. It's not Hendry's fault that no one has dealt with him yet. I think I'm going to write more on this over at Goat Riders, but I think you see my point.

And in case you don't: the season is long. It's not over. It'll probably end ugly, but there are a lot of things to look forward to.

I NEEDED A VACATION

For three miraculous days, I didn't watch the Cubs season disintegrate. For three days, I didn't get sick to my stomach every time I looked at a box score. I didn't feel the need to complain about Dusty Baker's inadequate managing style. I didn't even know that Corey and Dubois were demoted until about fifteen minutes ago.

I'm disappointed in Jason, although he's regressed. I blame Dusty for this problem. We'll never know how Dubois would've done had Dusty just given him the starting job from day one, like he deserved.

But as far as Corey goes, all I can say is: what a relief! Just how bad was he going to play before something was done about it? Dusty wasn't going to stop using him. Dusty decided that it was important to let Corey lead off during the worst slump of his career!

So now what? Just how desperate are the Cubs? How desperate is Jim Hendry to make a trade or three? The Cubs have to decide if they are buyers or sellers. If they're sellers, they only have a few players that can go anywhere. Those players are Patterson (if anyone wants him), Neifi, Hollandsworth, Hairston, Burnitz, Rusch, Dempster, Remlinger, and perhaps Todd Walker and Sergio. And maybe Kerry Wood.

I don't know, they might get a few essential relievers for that group. Maybe next year, the Cubs could parlay those cast-offs into four or five really good relief pitchers, so Hendry can spend the rest of his time concentrating on upgrading the outfield (like he should have last year!) and finding a young, talented second baseman.

The thing is, I wouldn't be adverse to a fire sale right now. The Cubs could still stock up and reload for 2006. The rest of this month will tell the tale. I realize that the Cubs are hardly out of the Wild Card, and that one good winning streak will put them back where they belong, but let's face it: this team is a massive disappointment. It's time to get ready for next year.

Hopefully, Baker will be gone soon, too. That's the one positive from all this.

GET ME OUT OF THIS PLACE

Things are going pretty badly for the Cubs. (That's so redundant, it's like saying "it's bright out when the sun shines.) Maddux has a Mitre-like ERA, Kerry Wood is still the Kerry Wood of old, Derrek Lee has a bum shoulder, and Dusty Baker is the team manager.

So, I'm taking a much-needed break from blogging. For just a few days. I'll be back on Saturday.

I have nothing good to say about the Cubs right now, except I hope this can lead to the positive conclusion of Dusty Baker getting fired. So, so long until Saturday.

SWEEP

I don't post for a whole weekend, and the Cubs get swept as a result. What an ugly, horrible series against the Nationals.

I think my blog could be seen as the bi-polar blog of the Cubs fan nation. The Cubs win two or three in a row, and it's all carwheels and summersaults. The Cubs lose two or three in a row, and it's doom and gloom and wait 'til next year.

In reality, even when I've been excited about this team, I've seen its' glaring holes. (They belong at the top of the lineup, and in the head of Dusty Baker who is apparently brain damaged.)

The amazing thing about yesterday's game is that, for the first time in recent memory, Dusty made up a lineup that could actually work. For a guy who tinkers and tinkers and tinkers, it must've taken a slap in the face for him to realize that Hairston and Walker belong in 1 and 2 spots in the lineup. Of course, Jerry isn't a starter in Dusty's eyes, and Walker went 0 for 6 with a critical error, and the Cubs lost, so we probably won't see it again until late July.

So, what's it going to take? Can this team still win?

I seem to recall that the 2003 Cubs floundered for quite a bit, until Jim Hendry made some immaculate trades that put the Cubs back in the game. But you can't rely on trades every year. Sometimes they lead to busts, and since acquiring Nomar during the last deadline, Hendry has done little to nothing to renew our confidence in him.

Therefore, it seems like we really shouldn't expect great things to happen. Consider it a miracle if the team finishes above .500. Then, hope that Hendry is disappointed, fires Baker, and replaces him with someone who actually uses his best players and makes no room for the bad ones, like Macias and *shudder* Enrique Wilson.

And once that happens, maybe, just maybe, fire will shoot from my ass.

NO SWEEP

It's my own fault. I do a long post about the Cubs and all their aces, then Greg Maddux remembers that he's nearing 40-years of age and has a mid-80's fastball, and subsequently gets rocked.

But the Cubs can get back on track today with a little help from Jerome Williams, who will be taking on the Nationals at Wrigley Field. Of course, the Nats are one of the hottest teams in baseball, but they've been playing above their heads for a long while now. It's only a matter of time before they come crashing back to earth and fall into a distant third in the standings, right? ...right?

Regardless, this is a must-win series for the Cubs. Luckily, with a healthy pitching staff, the Cubs find themselves in a strong position in which they can win any series. We no longer have to worry about whether Sergio will bring his "A" game or his "Sergio" game. We no longer have to concern ourselves with the antics of John Koronka.

And that's reason enough to hope for victory.