Three Oh Six

At the start of the season, I pointed out that Greg Maddux hasn't been a good April starter for some time now. He loses most of his games, his ERA is in the 5's, and it apparently takes until May for NL hitters to remember that this guy is smarter than them, so they should just weakly ground out to second base most of the time.

I also said that Maddux would be good for one win. Last night was it. Watching two 300-win pitchers duel occurs about as often as Haley's Comet flies by earth. And, in spite of the odds, Maddux won. He went against a guy with a season ERA of 0.32, and he came out on top. Jeromy Burnitz was the reason - Jeromy cranked a big homerun in the top of the 7th that gave the Cubs the lead, and Maddux the victory.

Today, we get to see if Kerry Wood is really alright, or if his season is in jeopardy. We also get to see if the Cubs can improve upon their record - they've won four of their last five.

DUBE-WATCH 4/30

In an astonishing move, Dusty Baker used Jason Dubois as a pinch hitter last night. Dubois hit a double, but was stranded. He has now improved his batting average to .320 (8 for 25), and continues to outperform Todd Hollandsworth in every possible way. However, Hollandsworth did have a good night himself yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two doubles and an RBI. He's now batting .250 on the season but still has one fewer RBIs than Dubois, in spite of having 39 more at bats on the season.

CUBS (11-10) AT HOUSTON (8-12)

The barely afloat Cubs are soon to enter a huge series against the floundering Houston Astros. This could be an exciting series for a number of reasons. And here at the Cub Fan Nation, we like to talk numbers, so here they are:

1. 300-win Clemens faces 300-win Maddux in what could be Roger's final start with the Astros. Ok, probably not, but you know that if Houston can't get it together, Roger will be on the first train out of town, probably for New York City.

2. Michael Barrett is back, and he wants justice! Last season, Barrett had it out with Astros ace Roy Oswalt in what turned out to be the Cubs swan song. But now it's 2005, and Michael is carrying the whooping stick. In other words, let's hope he talks with his bat, and that he speaks only the language of the three-run homerun.

3. Kerry Wood is scheduled to make his next start, but hey, he's a pitcher, it's Dusty's Cubs, so you know that it very well could be Kerry's last outing of the year. Good luck, Woody!

4. I just saved a ton of money by switching my car insurance to... nah, never mind, that's so 2004.

Anyway, here's how the games match up:

Friday April 29th, 8:05 EST: Greg Maddux (0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) v. Roger Clemens (1-0, 0.32 ERA, 0.79 WHIP)
Saturday April 30th, 7:05 EST: Kerry Wood (1-1, 5.79 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) v. Brandon Backe (1-1, 6.17 ERA, 1.54 WHIP)
Sunday May 1st, 2:05 EST: Mark Prior (3-0, 0.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) v. Roy Oswalt (3-2, 3.25 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)

Game Notes:
*Maddux's matchup with Clemens will be the first time two 300 game-winners have faced each other in a game since 1987, when Steve Carlton faced Don Sutton

*Kerry Wood is recovering from shoulder buritis, and may have a limited pitch count

*Maddux is still looking for his first win of the season

*Derrek Lee is hitting like a Golden God right now, having what has to be the hottest April of his career

*Dusty Baker has moronically decided to resume using LaTroy Hawkins as his closer, rather than go with the unproven Mike Wuertz. Good move, Dusty

Projections:

This might be the toughest three-game series the Cubs have had all season long, although Houston has started out slowly. Oswalt and Clemens can win every time they pitch, while Maddux and Wood have yet to really pitch to their ability. If Wood's shoulder stays strong, I expect two wins from the Cubs. But it's conceivable that they could lose this series. And if they sweep or get swept by Houston, then we have a considerably clearer view as to the ability of the team, at least in my opinion.

DERREK LEE: OFFENSIVE FORCE

I'm back from my recent trip to Western NY. Since I've left, there have been some explosions. Chad Fox's arm exploded. Carlos Zambrano emotionally exploded. And, on a positive note, Derrek Lee has offensively exploded. That's right: our favorite perennial slow starter is batting .430 with 8 doubles, 7 homeruns, and 27 RBI in only 21 games played. Over a full season, that equates to 62 doubles, 54 homeruns, 208 RBI, and he's also on pace for 100 walks and 31 steals.

How's Hee Seop Choi doing?

The Cubs also managed to take two of three from Cincinnati, in spite of the bad news of Chad Fox's career ending, Kerry Wood's sore shoulder, Zambrano's ejection, and LaTroy's promotion back into the closer spot. Let's hope they can keep this dysfunctional momentum and take two of three from Houston.

DUBE-WATCH 4-28

In the past few days, our favorite should-be starter went 1 for 3, with a homerun and 2 RBI, bringing his season totals to 7 for 24 (.292 AVG) with 2 homeruns and 7 RBI. He's on pace to hit 15 homers in 185 at bats. Dusty's preferred starter, Todd Hollandsworth, took over in left during the middle of yesterday's game. That's Dusty Logic for you. Your starting outfielder cranks a two-run homer, but he's a rookie, so you better bench him in the middle of a game for the guy who's batting .233 with one fewer homerun and 2 fewer RBI, in spite of having 36 more at bats on the season.

I guess the purpose of this site will become more and more oriented toward getting Dubois the starting position in left field before the season ends. I don't know if that'll ever happen, but if you haven't already noticed, I'm going to talk about it every single day until Dusty gets it right.

In other words, prepare for a long season of the Cub Fan Nation talking about Jason Dubois.

PRIOR RULES

And so, Mark Prior continues to dominate the NL Central, gaining his third victory of the season in a 6 inning, 10k performance. Chad Fox proved vulnerable, after giving up 3 runs late in the game. He then left the mound with an elbow injury tha they think could end his career. Way not to ruin pitchers, Dusty. Good job. Now that Fox is out of the picture, the Cubs have to find another closer. Could it finally go from Fox to Wuertz? (Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all morning.)

Now, Zambrano has to keep the ball rolling. In the meantime, I'll be headed back to Bolivar today, and will be away from the internet until Thursday. Just in case you care.

DUBE-WATCH 4-26

In spite of batting a whole 64 points higher, Dusty chose to bench Jason Dubois yesterday and start Todd Hollandsworth. Hollandsworth followed up with an 0 for 4 performance. Dubois is batting .286 on the season with 1 homerun and 5 RBI in 21 at bats. Hollandsworth now has 54 at bats and has only hit 1 homerun and driven in 5 RBI. When will Dusty see the light?

CUBS (9-9) V. REDS (9-9)

The Cubs battle to stay afloat in this three game series against the Reds. The Cubs just played Cincinnati in a two game series back on the 18th and 19th, where Mark Prior won his second game of the season. The Cubs are waiting on some news: will Kerry Wood miss a prolonged period of time due to his recurring bout with tendinitis? Will Dusty Baker ever get his head of out his ass and actually help the team win? Here's how the games will look:

Monday April 25th, 8:05 EST: Mark Prior (2-0, 0.00 ERA 0.85 WHIP) v. Paul Wilson (1-1, 5.63 ERA 1.54 WHIP)
Tuesday April 26th, 8:05 EST: Carlos Zambrano (3-0, 3.04 ERA 1.05 WHIP) v. Eric Milton (2-2, 4.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)
Wednesday April 27th, 2:20 EST: Ryan Dempster (1-3, 4.57 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) v. Aaron Harang (1-1, 3.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)

Game Notes:
*Mark Prior has dominated the Reds in his last two starts, and has pretty good numbers against them in his career, sporting a 1.82 ERA in 5 career starts, with 38 K's in 34.2 innings pitched. However, his first career win came his last start against them, back on the 19th.

*Similarly, Carlos Zambrano is 5-3 with a 1.49 ERA against the Reds in 66.2 innings of work.

*The Cubs new closer is Chad Fox, who has a 1.38 ERA against the Reds in his career. Apart from Red shortstop Rich Aurila, no current Red has seen success against Fox. Aurila, however, is 3 for 4.

Projections:
The Cubs should win 2 of 3, and again, this is a team they should be able to sweep. However, we can come to expect the mundane with this Cubs team. They should be 12-6 right now, but instead are battling to stay at .500. I see no reason for this to change. It's conceivable that this will be a .500 team all year long, although the pitching should be good enough for them to win 100 games. It depends on how Chad Fox does as closer, and how good Borowski is when he returns from the DL.

WHO IS THAT GUY?

19 for 48, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 8 RBI, a batting average of .396, an OBP of .420. That's what Neifi Perez has done so far this season. Neifi Perez. Inspiration of the less-than-inspiring Neifi Index. Hitter of homeruns. Blaster of doubles. Driver in of 2 RBI yesterday.

Obviously, he can't keep it up. He won't. How could he? But in a month's time, when he's batting .245 and still sitting on 2 homeruns, let's sit back and remember those short, sweet days when Neifi was an offensive force in the Cubs lineup. Nomar, get better quick, buddy.

As for the rest of the Cubs... yesterday's game was both good and bad. It was good that the Cubs won 5-2. They should've won the previous night, as well. It was good that Kerry Wood pitched a fairly dominating game. Chad Fox came in to close (apparently Wuertz is getting passed over) and struck out 2 batters without allowing a hit or walk. (Are you taking notes, LaBlow?) Jeromy Burnitz hit a three-run homerun. But the bad news: Wood left the game early with a sore shoulder.

According to the Tribune, Wood is expected to make his next start, although it's not a certainty. They're officially blaming the cold weather, which can have that kind of effect on a pitcher. We'll see how this develops.

DUBE-WATCH: APRIL 25TH

In an astonishing act, Dusty Baker started Jason Dubois for a second straight day. Unfortunately, Dubois went 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts. Baker pinch hit Hollandsworth for Dubois late in the game. On the year, Dubois is now batting .286.

I'll have the series preview against the Reds for later today.

SO LONG, LABLOW

Another one-run loss at the hands of LaTroy Hawkins, who gave up yet another two-out homerun that brought the opposition back from the brink of defeat. LaTroy has blown 10 out of 16 one-run save opportunities. 10 blown saves over a season and three weeks for Dusty Baker to realize that LaTroy Hawkins can't save one-run games. Remember, folks, this is the genius who's going to take us to the World Series.

Hopefully LaTroy can go back to dominating the 8th like he did before he was converted to the closer's role. In the meanwhile, the Cubs are without a closer, although they have a handful of options better than LaTroy on their roster. These options are:

Michael Wuertz: Young and unproven, Wuertz has been a solid pitcher for the Cubs since the All Star break last year. He had a 0.77 ERA in the second half of last season, and this year has a 1.13 ERA in 8 innings of work. He saved 19 games at Iowa last year, and could be a long-term solution.

Mike Remlinger: Remlinger has closed in the past. He saved 12 games for Atlanta in 2000, and has shown the ability to make big pitches in big situations. Of course, he's got an ERA of 7.94 and hasn't been a GREAT pitcher since signing with the Cubs. They're better off with Remlinger in long relief.

Chad Fox: Chad Fox has the most experience of the other candidates, and came to Chicago with the intent of being an option to close. However, in reality he may only be another Kyle Farnsworth. In his career, Fox only has 5 saves and 9 blown. But as a veteran, he's probably Dusty's top choice.

Conclusion: We're screwed. It wouldn't be so bad if Wuertz got the shot he deserves, but Dusty likes his vets, and you know he'll go with Fox. Fox could be a more capable closer than LaBlow, but he hasn't really shown the ability in his career. With some luck, Borowski will be back in two weeks and we can put this whole messy ordeal behind us.

DUBE-WATCH

Jason Dubois improved his season totals with a 2 for 3 outing yesterday against Pittsburgh. So far this year, Dubois is batting .333 in 18 at bats with 2 doubles, a homer, and 5 RBI (matching the homer and RBI total of starting left fielder Todd Hollandsworth, who has had 22 more at bats than him over the course of the season). However, in typical Dusty fashion, rather than allow Dubois to improve upon his good performance, Dusty pinch hit Jose Macias for Dubois late in the game. My favorite newly recurring dream is that Jim Hendry hires Donald Trump for the sole purpose of going to Chicago, getting Dusty in a room, and saying "You're fired," while wearing that vindictive, I-control-the-world look upon his face.

GAME RAINED OUT, NOMAR ON 'ROIDS?

Yesterday's game was rained out, giving the Cubs pitchers an extra day of rest. The game will be made up on July 14th, which was originally an off day for both teams.

The biggest bit of news today comes out of Boston, where Red Sox "journalist" Bob Ryan suggests that Nomar is a steroid abuser. This is pretty ludicrous, and according to a few sources, Nomar broke out laughing when he heard about the accusation. A far cry from how Sammy Sosa reacted several years ago, when SI journalist Rick Reilly offered to take Sosa to a clinic where he could have a steroid test taken.

In the meantime, the team has stated that a trade is unlikely for now, as it is too early in the season to find teams willing to unload salary. I guess that means the Cubs will have to suffer through for a month or more before they can find a willing partner. I suggested over at Goat Riders of the Apocalypse that the Cubs should try to strike up a deal with Tampa, but more than one person has suggested the idea is ludicrous. Tampa is well within the confines of their salary restrictions, Huff is relatively cheap for the level of production that he gives, and ownership almost certainly doesn't want to alienate the fan base by unloading two or three of the team's best players. So, if the Cubs ever DO make a big trade, it'll probably have to be with another team.

TIME TO GIVE DUBE-WAH A CHANCE

After 15 games and 49 at bats, Todd Hollandsworth is batting .245 with 2 doubles, a triple, a homerun, and only 5 RBI. He's struck out 12 times. This is no surprise to anyone. Hollandsworth is a great hitter off the bench, but if he gets 500 at bats during the course of the season, he'll only hurt the team. Meanwhile, Jason Dubois already has as many homeruns and only one less RBI in 34 fewer at bats. He's batting .267, and has an OPS of .886. Who knows how he'd do as a full time starter? Although, that's really the point, isn't it? We don't know how he'd do as a starter! Hopefully, Baker will abandon his plan to start Hollandsworth in the next two or three weeks.

CUBS (8-8) V. PIRATES (5-11)

After splitting a series with the Cardinals, the Cubs will be hosting the Pirates in Chicago for a three game series. In their last matchup, the Cubs took 2 of 3. Since then, Pittsburgh has lost 3 of 4 and is already on the verge of falling out of competition on the season.

Here's how the games match up:

Friday April 22nd, 3:20 EST: Greg Maddux (0-1, 5.63 ERA) v. Mark Redman (1-1, 2.33 ERA)
Saturday April 23rd, 2:20 EST: Kerry Wood (0-1, 6.38 ERA) v. Dave Williams (1-1, 2.31 ERA)
Sunday April 24th, 2:20 EST: Mark Prior (2-0, 0.00 ERA) v. Josh Fogg (1-1, 2.45 ERA)

Game Notes:
*Ironically, the Pirates pitchers have better number than Wood and Maddux. That trend will change this weekend

*With Nomar Garciaparra out for the next two or three months, the Cubs have made Neifi Perez the starting shortstop, and promoted Ronny Cedeno to backup the infield.

Projections:
The Cubs need to win this series, and a sweep wouldn't be a bad thing either. The Cubs have the pitching to do it, but their pitching has been about as sporadic as their offense. Wood and Maddux are both due to win.

One other note: I'm having internet problems, so I won't be posting as often for the next five or six days. I'll still try to post daily, however, so keep checking in.

SOMETIMES THE PRICE OF A WIN IS JUST TOO COSTLY

I didn't really follow the game last night. I watched Rosemary's Baby (a hugely overrated movie, in my estimation), saw a couple of episodes of Angel, and checked the box score in the third or fourth, where I noticed that Carlos Zambrano had hit a run-scoring triple. Naturally, I burst out laughing when I saw that. If you've ever seen the Big Moose run, you'll understand why it's funny to imagine him getting a triple.

Later last night, as I was going to bed, I looked at the box score again, and I saw that Nomar Garciaparra had left the game early because of an injured groin. Upon further investigation, (ie: reading all the other boards this morning), it's become clear that Nomar has suffered a really bad injury which will cause him to miss anywhere from two weeks (unlikely) to two months of the season (almost a certainty).

Well guys, let's hope that Jim Hendry can figure something out. I don't feel quite as happy about the team with Neifi Perez in the lineup every day. It's too bad the Cubs couldn't've convinced Barry Larkin to sign for a year.

Regardless, Carlos Zambrano again demonstrated why he's the single most exciting pitcher to watch in Cubs baseball. He's got a ton of heart. He left the game in the bottom of the 9th, with just one out from getting the complete game. Unfortunately, he seemed to have developed a blister, and despite his pleas and icy, deathly glares, Dusty decided to go to LaTroy Hawkins for the save.

LaTroy then gave up a 399 foot bomb, in the only part of the park where it's 401 feet for a homer.

Can you imagine what would've happened to LaTroy had he blown the save? Carlos would've cornered him in the dugout, ripped a leg off a chair, and beaten him within an inch of his life. Why? Because Carlos is just that tough. Maybe they can rig Carlos and Nomar to a bed and have the Big Moose give the Big Goose a blood transfusion. Hey, it couldn't hurt, right?

CUBS (7-7) AT ST. LOUIS (8-4)

Last year, the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry was pretty tough on Cubs fans. St. Louis beat on the Cubs as though we were crack addicted 'ho's, and the Cardinals were the pimps who controlled our every act and thought. Ok, it wasn't quite that bad, but it felt like it. The Cubs were 8-11 against the Cardinals last year, but were pounded on by St. Louis in the final three series in which they met. (That pretty much set the tone for the season, don't you think?) The Cardinals beat on the Cubs bullpen. They beat on the Cubs rotation. They sent Zambrano into a frenzy only seen before when observing the Tasmanian Devil go after Bugs and Daffy. In other words, they owned us, we knew it, and it made us furious.

Well, it's a new year. A new chance. I'm sure there's still a grudge there from last season. I have no doubt that Cubs players want revenge, and Cardinals players want to rub it in our faces some more. The east coast might not see it as Yankees v. Red Sox, but perhaps they should. Then again, maybe they do, since ESPN is broadcasting both games. Anyway, here's how these teams match up:

Wednesday April 20th, 7:10 EST: Carlos Zambrano (1-0, 4.00 ERA) v. Jeff Suppan (1-1, 3.65 ERA)
Thursday April 21st, 1:10 EST: Ryan Dempster (1-2, 5.74 ERA) v. Chris Carpenter (2-1, 6.35 ERA)

Game Notes:
*In his career against St. Louis, the Big Moose is 1-4 in 9 games pitched, with a 3.51 ERA. Dempster is 2-3 with a 6.17 ERA in 8 games pitched

*Jeff Suppan is 2-2 against the Cubs in 6 career starts, with an ERA of 4.06. Carpenter is 4-1 in 5 career starts, with an ERA of 4.24

*Entering this series, Nomar Garciaparra is 6 for 49 (.163), with only 4 RBI on the season

*As a team, the Cubs are batting .267 with an OBP of .331. Their opponents are batting .258 with an OBP of .341

*In spite of their good record, the Cardinals have had a weak offense so far this season. As a team, they're batting .241 with an OBP of .309. Their opponents are batting .261 with an OBP of .323

Projections:

It only took a mere 15 games into the season for me to do it, but I'm going to pull out the Must-Win card. Every game against the Cardinals is Must-Win, in my opinion. They're our biggest rival for the NL Central pennant, and the Cubs need to set the tone early and often against these guys. I hope the players remember how humiliating it was to lose to them last year. A little bit of a grudge is a good thing to carry in baseball, but at the same time, if Z comes in over-emotional and throwing at Edmonds, the Cubs are going to be in trouble. We need to calmly, coolly, kick the crap out of the Deadbirds, send them into tizzies of frustration, and watch them act like assholes. That's what they did to us last year, after all.

The Moose is due for a big win. Dempster could go either way, but his last two outings were very solid, so hopefully we'll see a third in a row. It's only April, and the Cubs can get by on .500 ball for now. But they need to start winning 2 of 3 on a regular basis, and a long winning streak would be very nice. It'd be even nicer to start that winning streak in St. Louis.

HE'S BACK



One lesson I've learned in my years as a Cub fan is to never trust a first start. Sometimes you'll see miraculous things that first game. Tuffy Rhodes might hit three homers against Doc Gooden. Kerry Wood might take down the Astros and bang a homer ala the Natural. Last season, when Mark Prior returned from achilles and elbow soreness, he wound up going 6 innings in his first start against the Pirates, allowing only 2 hits, striking out 8, walking none, and allowing zero runs to score. His next game out, he was rocked for 5 runs in 3.2 innings against the Deadbirds, and he didn't really look like himself again until September.

Yesterday, Prior made his second appearance of the season. After the first inning, I thought for sure that it would be a repeat of last year. Not that the box score tells the tale, oh no. In his first inning of work, Prior allowed a first at-bat single to leadoff man Ryan Freel. Then, the next three Reds batters teed off on him.

Ken Griffey Jr. drilled a ball that carried all the way to the wall, although Corey Patterson managed to make the snag. Sean Casey batted next, and he smacked a Prior fastball into left field, where Jason Dubois made a running catch at the warning track. And then, Joe Randa took a Prior pitch deep into center, causing the Patterson snag that you see in the graphic to your left. It was an amazing catch. Just yesterday, I'd said in my blog, "Jason LaRue blasted a double off the center field wall, which I personally think Corey Patterson could've caught if he hadn't slowed up on the warning track. Sure, I can see why he wouldn't want to slam hard into the wall, and it's probably better for the team that he didn't try to make the grab at a full-on sprint, but I still think he could have done it, and I sorta wish that he'd've tried." Corey must read the Cubs blogs, because he took it to heart. During the broadcast, the horrible Reds commentators at one point said that Corey later thought he could've caught that LaRue double, and was intent on not stopping for the wall today. Good thing.

All in all, it was a helluva game for the Cubs. They scored 7 runs, they only allowed one run, and they enter their first series of the year against St. Louis as a .500 ball team.

Good things will happen.

KERRY WOOD, WHEREFORE ART THOU?

A ringing complaint of Kerry Wood is that he's never won 15 games. Big whoop. There are a lot of undeserving pitchers who have won 15 games, and I don't think it's a sign of weakness on Wood's part that he's failed to do so thus far. Mostly, I think he's failed to win 15 games because of the run support. How many times has Kerry Wood lost a game 3-2? How often has he left with a one-run lead, only for the bullpen to blow it wide open? Too often, if you ask me. But if Wood could do one thing, it's win a ball game when staked with a big lead. He was always as good as gold if that happened. Until yesterday.

Yesterday, the Cubs jumped out to a four run lead in the first inning. Corey hit a homerun. Aramis hit a bomb. Derrek Lee sent a baseball to Kentucky. It was truly a great inning. Unfortunately for the Cubs, there were eight more that followed.

By the time Wood left the game after 6 innings, he'd blown the lead and the game was tied 5-5. That's when Dusty's brain decided to take a constitutional. In the 7th, Glendon Rusch came in and dominated the Reds in a way that probably made Kerry Wood feel jealous. At the top of the 8th, the bottom of the Cubs order was up, with Rusch batting fourth in the inning. Subsequently, Baker had Leicester warm up in the pen. But the Cubs went out in three at bats. Rather than have an effective Rusch stay in to pitch another inning, Baker went to Leicester, who has been sporadic at best this year.

In his single inning of work, Jon walked 2 batters and hit a third. Then, with the bases juiced, I saw what has to be the most confusing play of the season thus far. Rich Aurilia hit a big bounce to third. Aramis jumped up, snagged the ball, and came down on the bag for a force out. Then, he threw the ball home, where Michael Barrett tagged Joe Randa. Two outs, and the threat is almost over, right? Except Barrett made a mental mistake - he saw Dunn not standing on third, and not realizing that Aramis had already gotten the force, he threw the ball askew past Ramirez and into shallow left field. Dunn came home and was scored as the 6th run of the game, although I think the confusion belonged only to the idiot Reds commentators and the scoreboard operator. The run was later removed from the record (as Dunn had clearly been forced out earlier) and the Cubs again had a 5-5 tie with the Reds.

That's when Jason LaRue blasted a double off the center field wall, which I personally think Corey Patterson could've caught if he hadn't slowed up on the warning track. Sure, I can see why he wouldn't want to slam hard into the wall, and it's probably better for the team that he didn't try to make the grab at a full-on sprint, but I still think he could have done it, and I sorta wish that he'd've tried. Two runs came in off the double, and although the Cubs started a rally in the top of the 9th, they went on to lose the game.

So, I guess there are a lot of guys to blame for this loss. Blame Kerry Wood, blame Dusty Baker for using Leicester (I mean, c'mon, the guy's got 7 walks to 3 k's on the season. You don't use him in a clutch situation!), blame Michael Barrett for the defensive miscue that probably rattled his pitcher, blame Corey Patterson for not taking one for the team, etc. etc. etc.

Hopefully Prior gets the win today, guys. Good teams shouldn't lose to the Reds.

CUBS (6-6) AT CINCINNATI (6-5)

The Cubs are now in the same position they were back on April 11th, after taking two from Milwaukee. They're at .500, and are lined up with their three best pitchers, giving them an opportunity for an extended winning streak. They should win the next two games for sure, as they are playing the Reds - a team projected to go nowhere. Here's how the games match up:

Monday April 18th, 7:10 EST: Kerry Wood (0-1, 5.84 ERA) v. Matt Belisle (1-1, 3.52 ERA)
Tuesday April 19th, 7:10 EST: Mark Prior (1-0, 0.00 ERA) v. Brandon Claussen (no record)

Game Notes:
*In his career, Kerry Wood is 12-3 in 18 starts against the Reds, with 155 k's in 121.1 innings pitched, and an ERA of 2.74

*Mark Prior is 0-2 in his career against the Reds, but with an ERA of 2.28

*Brandon Claussen was sent to the Reds from the Yankees in 2003 for Aaron F'n Boone. Last year he started in 14 games, averaging only 4.2 innings of work per game started. He went 2-8 with a 6.14 ERA, including one 3.2 inning outing against the Cubs, in which he gave up 7 earned runs off of 2 homers (Carlos Zambrano received his 16th victory of the campaign during that game)

*This will be Matt Belisle's second career start in the majors

Projections:
I'm going to keep predicting a sweep until it actually happens. Since this is only a two game series, and since two of the Cubs best pitchers will be on the mound, and since they'll be starting against two young pitchers who both lack any sort of track record, I don't think it's too much to predict a sweep this time around, either. Which will be a good thing, as the Cubs will face the Cardinals immediately after, and it'd be nice to head into that series with some momentum. One other projection: look for Nomar to get out of his slump in this series as well. He's long over-due.

OK, I'M BACK

I took off for Western NY over the weekend, and as a consequence, I missed my first Cubs series of the season. That's right, I didn't see the Cubs lose in late innings on Thursday. (Mike Remlinger, Big Z demands an explanation!) I also missed the team's victories over the following two days, which included a one-run win on Friday, and two saves by LaTroy. I do have a couple of thoughts about it, however.


First, I think Ryan Dempster will be alright. He's not going to be great, but I do believe he'll do for us what Matt Clement did for three years previous. Dempster will go six or seven innings. He'll have an ERA anywhere from 3.90 to 4.75 over the season. He'll win about as often as he loses, and he'll throw anywhere from 180 to 200 innings. That's all we really need from him. He's the #5 guy, and his last two starts have been very reassuring to this caustic Cubs fan. In his last 12 innings, he's given up 3 earned runs, and that sits fine with me.




Second, although Maddux hasn't earned a win yet, he's done what we've expected of him. Yesterday, he went 6 innings, walked zero hitters, and gave up only 2 earned runs. His Aprils are always a little worrisome, and I know that one day, April and May will look identical on his stat line, and that will turn into an entire season of woe. I don't think that season is in 2005, though.



Third, let's kiss Derrek Lee's ass right now, shall we? We always knew that Dee Lee was a good first baseman, but this just might be the year he becomes an offensive force for the Cubs. First, we have him over at first base, where he's been making defensive scoops and saves that would cause Fred McGriff's head to explode. Then we have him at the plate, where he's batting .364, with 14 RBI, 10 BB, 4 doubles, and 2 homers, all in 12 games. Let's face it: as disappointed as we are at the team's 6-6 start, without Derrek Lee, it would be more like 3-9.




Fourth, I'm not worried about Zambrano. Nor am I worried about Kerry Wood. These guys are better than their early starts indicate. They're both capable of stringing together long runs of dominance. They could both win 20. Once they buckle down and start winning the way we know they should, second place is going to be long gone into the rear view. In the meantime, it's only April 18th, for cripe's sake! Be patient! Don't boo them just yet! Dusty or not, this team can win.

CUBS (4-5) AT PITTSBURGH (3-6)
The Cubs lost two of three from San Diego. They should've won the first game, but the offense decided to stay at home. Now, they're off to Pittsburgh, where they can relive the nightmare that was the double header from late May of last year. I was at that game, and let me say, it was one of the worst experiences in my life as a baseball fan. There's nothing more depressing than watching your bullpen blow two games in one night. Hopefully the Cubs offense can keep it out of reach, thus preventing LaTroy from blowing another close one.

Here's how the games will look:

Friday April 15th, 7:05 EST: Carlos Zambrano (1-0, 2.25 ERA, 14 Ks in 12 IP) v. Oliver Perez (0-2, 11.00 ERA)
Saturday April 16, 7:05 EST: Greg Maddux (0-1, 7.20 ERA) v. Kip Wells (0-2, 8.03 ERA)
Sunday April 17th, 1:35 EST: Ryan Dempster (0-2, 6.52 ERA) v. Mark Redman (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

Game Notes:
*As you can see by looking at the lines of Perez and Wells, an anemic Cubs offense should have a feast in the first two games of the series. Perez has been rocked by the Brewers and Padres, while Kip Wells lost both his games against Milwaukee.

*Ryan Dempster looks to improve upon his last outing, where he went 6 innings and only gave up a single unearned run. (Just gives you a sense of perspective as to just how bad Dempster's first game must've been if he could throw six innings without allowing a single earned run in his second game, and still have an ERA of 6.52 on the season).

*Mark Redman has pitched very strong baseball so far this year. The Cubs thumped his ass in the 2003 NLCS in Game Seven, knocking him out after 3 innings of work.

*In their careers against the Cubs, Oliver Perez is 1-3 in 6 starts, with a 4.50 ERA. Kip Wells is 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA in 10 games. And Mark Redman is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 15 k's in 15 innings against the Cubs during the regular season.

Projections:
I'm going to go out on a line and say that the Cubs will sweep. Again, it's just April. They don't need to sweep. They don't even need to win. But they better win, it's the Pirates. If the Cubs are going to be a good team in 2005, they're going to need to learn how to announce their presence with authority, and they need to learn fast.

CUBS SPLIT DOUBLE-HEADER

In terms of performance, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood looked very different yesterday. In fact, Prior looked like a Greek God out there on the mound, while Wood looked more like a goddamn Greek. Prior went six innings, allowing no runs, striking out six, and walking only one. He regularly got the first pitch strike against batters, and rarely went deep into the count with any of them.

Kerry Wood, on the other hand, had an incredibly rocky first inning. He gave up a leadoff homerun, then plunked the next batter, then issued a four-balls walk to Brian Giles, then threw three more balls in a row to Ryan Klesko before getting a strike. All this caused the Wrigley Faithful to loudly boo Kerry Wood. I guess the Lovable Losers tag is a thing of the past. We want to win.

Wood somehow was able to put it together enough to pitch into the 7th inning, although he gave up 7 runs, 6 earned on the day. Thankfully, Mark Prior picked the team up in Game Two.

The Cubs are off today. They're in Pittsburgh for the weekend. I'm going to be out of town starting later today, so I'll try to get my matchup post up before I leave (not that anyone seems to care for that feature, anyway).

Hey, it's good to have Prior back. But, like I said over at Desipio, let's watch Prior pitch three or four good games before we get our hopes up. He could easily get rocked the next time he throws.

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER INJURY, ANOTHER CONTROVERSY

After yesterday's rash of Fire Dusty! postings here and elsewhere, it would appear as though we Cubs fans jumped the gun a bit. In an Tribune article today, Dusty ripped the media for causing the story, and promised that Hairston would receive the majority of playing time. Let's hope so. Neifi is a lot like metamuesil. Good only in small doses.

I mentioned yesterday on this site that Chuck Gittles refers to Al Yellon as a "faith healer." That might be a bit of a stretch, but it is a good nickname... for Dusty. According to an article by Rick Morrissey, Dusty is an incredibly superstitious man who has sprinkled mysterious dirt on the grounds of Wrigley Field, and applied Holy Water blessed by the Pope to Mark Prior's elbow.

Hey, why not?

Had there been a game yesterday, Aramis Ramirez would've been scratched from the lineup because his groin has begun acting up again. Aramis says that it isn't sore, but something just doesn't feel right. Last year, Ramirez was plagued with a groin injury that limited him to 145 games played. Get healthy, big boy.

The Cubs match up against the Padres in a double header today. Originally, Mark Prior was going to pitch yesterday against Padres ace Jake Peavy. However, due to the double header, Prior and Wood have been flipped in the order, meaning that Kerry will face Peavy, and Mark will face Brian Lawrence. The first game begins at 1:05 EST, and the second game is scheduled to start at 5:05.

A RAINOUT IS A CRAPPY WAY TO WIN A BET, CHUCK

Although I haven't mentioned it on this blog before, you probably know about the bet between Chuck Gittles of Ivy Chat and Al Yellon of Bleed Cubbie Blue. Basically, Chuck believed that Mark Prior wasn't going to be healthy for a long, long time. Al disagreed. As a consequence, Chuck began calling Al "Faith Healer," and they made a friendly wager about when Prior would pitch again. Al bet on today.

Unfortunately, because of a rain delay Al has lost the bet. The good news is, Prior will pitch during tomorrow's double header. How often do two aces pitch on the same day? The answer is at least "occasionally," as Kerry Wood will be scheduled to start Game Two. The Cubs will hopefully win at least one of those games.

In other news, the Dusty Baker controversy has kicked up quite a storm among online Cubs fans. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems as though the majority of fans are calling for Dusty to be fired - or, at least, to explain his actions in a way that actually makes sense. But we have to face facts. Dusty's not going anywhere, not this year, probably not even next year. The Cubs are going to have to win in spite of him. I believe they can.

Let's hope tomorrow isn't another rainout.

CUBS LOSE, HAIRSTON MISERABLE, EVERYONE CONFUSED

It's way too early in the season to feel as angry about the team as I felt yesterday. I'm not angry because Adam Eaton shut down the Cubs, although that was disappointing. I'm not mad at Jeromy Burnitz, whose error in right field led to the game's only scored run. No, I'm upset with Dusty Baker, who apparently seems intent on running this team into the ground.

I used to be on the Baker Bandwagon. I trusty'd Dusty. I defended him. I liked him. But slowly, he made moves that confused me. He made moves that seemed to contradict logic. Yesterday, the straw that broke the camel's back was twofold: he decided Neifi Perez was a better option at second base than Jerry Hairston, and then he batted Neifi second in the lineup.

Neifi Perez. Second in the lineup. He of the career .269 batting average, with a .301 career OBP. He who had an OBP of .296 last year. That Neifi Perez.

Well, ok, I thought as I watched in misery, maybe it was just a one game thing. Maybe Jerry Hairston will get to start second base the next day, as he rightfully deserves. Then, today, I read this.

From the Chicago Tribune: "...the Cubs have a capable defensive replacement for Walker in Neifi Perez, who will receive the bulk of the playing time at second."

Dusty Baker is killing this ball club. I don't know what to say otherwise. I just hope somebody in the Chicago media has the guts to call him on it, because I get the feeling that Dusty gets off easy on these things, although he might tell you otherwise.

I used to be his fan. What was I thinking?

UPDATE: WALKER OUT FOR 4-6 WEEKS

According to the Chicago Tribune, Cubs second baseman Todd Walker is out 4-6 weeks with a severe sprain to the medial collateral ligament in his left knee. This is bad news for Walker, and probably bad news for Cubs fans. After all, Dusty certainly can't be relied upon to use Jerry Hairston Jr. as his starting second baseman. Get used to Neifi and Mac-ass.

The Cubs have promoted Mike Fontenot, who was previously just a footnote throw-in for Sammy Sosa when Hendry shipped Sammy off to Baltimore. (*pauses, smiles at dumb joke*) Fontenot is an Augie Ojeda-type in his fourth year as a minor leaguer. He's 24-years-old, and last season at Ottawa (the Orioles Triple A affiliate) he batted .279 in 524 at bats, with 8 homeruns, 49 RBI, 14 steals, 48 walks, and 111 strikeouts. Chances are, we won't see much of him on the bench or in the field. Dusty likes his veterans, after all.

My take on this: I'm bummed out to see Walker hurt, although I like Hairston more as a player. As you can surely read between the lines, I don't trust Dusty to put Jerry in as the starting second baseman. Maybe someone should inform Dusty that Jerry's worst year is pretty much on par with Neifi's best. Anyway, if Jerry is in the everyday lineup, then the Cubs have a genuine leadoff hitter and Corey can move down the order a bit. If Jerry isn't in the lineup, then the Cubs have a black hole in the 7th or 8th spot (or wherever Dusty bats Neifi) and the team will suffer. We'll see how it goes.

PADRES v. CUBS

After taking two of three from the Brewers, the 3-3 Cubs will host the 3-3 Padres for three games at Wrigley Field. The Padres are a playoff caliber team that's young and will only get better as the season progresses. The Cubs are a team who may have just lost their starting second baseman for the season, while at the same time, have regained their ace. Here's how the games are lined up:

Monday April 11th, 2:20 EST: Ryan Dempster (0-1, 17.18 ERA) v. Adam Eaton (0-0, 5.79 ERA)
Tuesday April 12th, 2:20 EST: Mark Prior (0-0, 0.00 ERA) v. Jake Peavy (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Wednesday April 13th, 2:20 EST: Kerry Wood (0-0, 3.18 ERA) v. Brian Lawrence (0-1, 2.57 ERA)

Game Notes:
*Dempster was hit and miss in his first start, striking out 7 in 3.2 innings pitched, while walking 3 and giving up 7 earned runs against the Diamond-backs. As he goes, so will go the Cubs. If Dempster gets the win today, the Cubs could put together a mini-winning streak with Wood, Prior, and Zambrano following him on the mound. But if it's another shelling, the Cubs might have to come to terms with the necessity of finding a fifth starter elsewhere, and sooner rather than later.

*While still unofficial, it's been heavily speculated that Mark Prior will make his first start of the season on the 12th. In six innings of work at Iowa, Prior was rocked for 7 earned runs. This has caused some concern among Cub fans, because Prior started the season in a very rocky manner after missing two months due to elbow and achilles problems last year.

*Kerry Wood must improve upon his command in his second start of the season. In his first game of the year, Wood went 5.2 innings, striking out 7 while walking 5. If Wood is to ever become an elite pitcher, he'll have to improve his command.

*For San Diego, their three starters in this series are good. This is a question for concern, as the Cubs faced two uh, less than good starters from the Brewers, and still found ways to almost get swept. In 2004, Adam Eaton went 11-14 with a 4.61 ERA, and had a 2.94 k/bb ratio. Not horrible. Jake Peavy, who is only 23, went 15-6 last year with a 2.27 ERA, striking out 173 in 166.1 innings pitched. He could give Zambrano a good race for Cy Young. And Brian Lawrence, age 28, went 15-14 last year with a 4.12 ERA. Not great, but nothing to sneer at.

*The point of concern for this series is the walks total. Last year, San Diego had a team OBP of .342 - not great, but considerably better than Chicago's .328. If Dempster, Prior, and Wood prove to be inconsistent in the strike zone, the Padres offense could create some runs.

Projections:
This is a series that could go either way. It's way too early in the year to say that any series (or game) is MUST-WIN, but if the Cubs are going to establish themselves as a competitive team that can hold their own against the better teams in baseball, then they need to win against playoff-caliber teams like San Diego. Ryan Dempster needs to find a way to go six innings, especially after yesterday's extra-inning game, in which the bullpen went on to throw something like seven innings of work. Mark Prior needs to not have a rocky first inning on Tuesday, and it would go a long way to alleviate everyone's concerns if he could find a way to be the Prior of old and dominate the San Diego offense from the beginning. And Kerry Wood needs to master the strike zone.

I won't predict how these games will go. The Cubs could sweep or be swept. Until the pitching establishes itself (so far, it hasn't even come close to doing that), then every game is up in the air.

CARLOS LEE MUST PAY

Word from Chicago is that Todd Walker may be seriously injured after a collision with Carlos Lee yesterday.

Walker was trying for a double play to end the top half of the 10th inning. Lee broke up the double play, but not by simply trying to take Walker out. He waited until he was dangerously close to the Cubs second baseman, before dropping down and colliding with Walker. Maybe he was just trying to do his job as a runner, but the late slide just reeks of dirty baseball to me. As a result, Walker needed help off the field after the 10th ended, and he's had an MRI, of which the results will be revealed before today's game against San Diego.

I only have a few thoughts on the matter. First, I'm glad the Cubs have Jerry Hairston. He can play second adequately, plus he's a better leadoff man than Corey Patterson. It's conceivable that Walker will be out for at least two weeks, and possibly the rest of the season if he tore a ligament. Hairston could be a better offensive choice anyway, but I'll still be very upset if Walker is gone.

My second thought is that Carlos Lee needs a fastball to his ribs. At least once a game, for every game the Cubs play the Brewers for the rest of the year, Carlos Lee needs to be thrown at. It was a dirty play that could jeopardize Todd Walker's season, or even his career. Lee needs to pay.

Anyway, in about five minutes, I'm going to make my second post of the day, discussing the upcoming series against San Diego. So stay tuned.

A PICTURE SAYS IT ALL



A few days after the Cubs had begun depressing the crap out of me, they've come back to pull off one dominating victory yesterday, and today the Cubs came back from a 5-2 deficit to score three runs in the sixth. Six innings later, Todd Hollandsworth drove in Jeromy Burnitz and the game was ended.

Unfortunately, I missed most of the game to see the Jays/Red Sox. To emulate Yogi Berra, it was a great game in the 9th inning. When we got back from that, I saw that the Cubs and Brewers were still playing. An hour and a half later, they were still playing, so we went for some dinner. Upon our return, they had won.

A few thoughts on the game:

I'm glad Hollandsworth is getting hits. I want Dubois to start, but if he's never going to get the chance (and he won't), at least Holly is producing.

Unbelievably, there are already people out there crying doom and gloom because Nomar hasn't started out with a hot bat. Guys, it's been six games. Chill.

The nameless home jerseys look fricking fantastic.

Todd Walker was taken out in a slide by the Big Stick (minus the "st," plus a "pr") Carlos Lee. He hobbled off the field after the inning, and I have no idea if he's seriously hurt. I'm sure we'll know more tomorrow.

Unfortunately, I was forced to listen to the Fox Sports Brewers commentators, who went out of their way to fellate Jorge De La Rosa as he struck out 5 batters in two innings. It was a little annoying, and comparatively, Len and Bob look a million times better. I still miss Stoney.

The Cubs play San Diego next. The Padres are a good, young team, and I'll so a series preview tomorrow morning. The good news tonight: Mark Prior is scheduled to pitch in the second game.

Let's hope we see it as good news the day after.

THE MOOSE RIDES AGAIN

Carlos Zambrano is more than an ace pitcher (at only 23 years of age). He's also a maniac.

Take yesterday's game for example. After getting the first out of the first inning, Carlos stepped off the rubber favoring his pitching arm. Groans of dismay could've been heard all over the country. Dusty probably got two ulcers between the time it took him to get up in the dugout and talk to Zambrano on the mound. But then, Carlos gave his arm a maniacal glare. The muscle that had been cramping up stopped twiching. Zambrano then went on to allow only a solitary hit through the next 7.1 innings pitched.

The kid is good. And you can't stop him. Go ahead, cut off his arm. He'll still find a way to beat you. Squeeze him on the corners, and he'll still win the game. You know why no one from Venezuela has kidnapped the Moose's Mom? Because they know that if they do, he'd be in Venezuela the very next day. He'd hunt them down with a rusty machete, and believe me, he'd figure out how to use it. And no one wants to see Carlos Zambrano wielding a rusty machete.

So, the Cubs are now 2-3. They beat the Milwaukee ace. Today, Greg Maddux matches up against Victor Santos. Last season, Santos averaged about 5.1 innings pitched per start. He still managed for 23 decisions in 28 games. His ERA was 4.86, and he has to be the most vulnerable Brewers pitcher. If the Cubs can't beat him, then we really are in trouble.

I'M FEELING BLUE

Rather than watch the Cubs play today's rubber game on MLB.TV, I've decided to watch a game in person - the Blue Jays against the Red Sox. Unfortunately, the Jays will be facing off against Matt Clement. I say "unfortunately" because he's always been my least favorite Cubs pitcher to watch, and I've seen at least two or three games pitched by him already in my young life. Now I'll be seeing him again.

In case you were wondering, Carolyn and I ultimately decided that you shouldn't buy something just because it's cheap, and we passed on the Blue Jays season tickets for the year. As lame as this sounds, I think I'd rather spend my summer sitting outside on the deck with the laptop watching Cubs games. Regardless, we'll spend today's game out in the bleachers, which cost us $2 a ticket. Money worth spending.

MEET THE NEW CUBS, SAME AS THE OLD CUBS

Tell me if this sounds familiar. After hacking away at bad pitches for most of the game (and stranding waaaaaaaaaay too many guys on base), through the steady and solid team pitching, the Cubs manage to eke out a one-run lead. They then turn to their closer, who proceeds mow down the first two batters in effortless fashion.

Then, all hell breaks loose.

The Cubs closer gives up a hit. Ok, not the end of the world. But wait - the guy on first is a speedster, and when the Cubs closer gives up a bloop shot to left field (that is promptly bobbled by the veteran "defensive" replacement), the guy on first base goes all the way home, tying the game.

The team then flails away at the ball for three innings before overextending their relief pitcher, who loses it, and the game, in the 12th. Final score, 6-3, Brewers over Cubs. Ouch.

This situation, which we all experienced yesterday - yet again - leaves me asking a few questions. First, what will it take for Dusty to realize that most defensive replacements are, you know, young players with better wheels? Second, how long will we have to suffer through LaTroy Hawkins as our closer? Third, what happened to Corey Patterson's Spring Training mantra of walks, not strikeouts?

I find myself questioning the direction of the team, and the competency of the management. Not that of Jim Hendry, though. Don't get me wrong. Saint Jim can only do so much, and I don't think anyone could've guessed that Dusty would be so hard to work with when he came to Chicago before the start of the 2003 season.

But it's not too late. This team is almost certainly going to turn it around. But the more I see of the 2005 Cubs, the more the illusion cracks, and it looks like 2004 all over again.

Somebody, please put a stop to this.

CUBS v. BREWERS

The Cubs open up at home against Milwaukee - a team that tends to play pretty exciting baseball against Chicago. Here's how the games are lined up:

Friday April 8th, 2:20PM: Kerry Wood (0-0, 0.00 ERA) v. Chris Capuano (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Saturday April 9th, 2:20 PM: Carlos Zambrano (0-0, 5.79 ERA) v. Ben Sheets (1-0, 2.57 ERA)
Sunday April 10th, 2:20 PM: Greg Maddux (0-1, 9.00 ERA) v. Victor Santos (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Game Notes:
*This will be Kerry Wood's debut. Previously, he'd been recovering from buritis.
*Henry Blanko is expected to make his first start as a Cub against Ben Sheets.

Projections:
After losing two of three games to the Diamond-backs, the Cubs have to pull things together against the Brewers. The only problem is, it won't be easy. There's more than one journalist who projects Milwaukee to be a darkhorse playoff candidate, and last year the Brewers were a team that stayed above .500 until July 22nd. (After that point, they went 20 and 48 - ouch!)

However, I think the Cubs are going to win this series. It's not the end of the world if they don't, but they should. Even if Wood isn't at the top of his game, the Cubs should hit Chris Capuano pretty well. Zambrano and Sheets is an even toss-up - both are aces. And Maddux... well, he has to win at least once or twice in April. It might as well be against the Brewers, right?

PRIOR WATCH: TNG pt. 2

Mark Prior made his rehab debut last night in Iowa. It wasn't exactly a smashing success. The Franchise gave up 7 runs in six innings, mostly stemming from a horrible first inning in which he gave up five runs on six hits. His fastball never surpassed 93 (which isn't bad, it's just not quite where Prior has historically thrown it). However, his command improved after the first inning, and he is expected to report good progress and zero pain to the Cubs. Hopefully, he'll be with the team on the 12th, and hopefully, his next first inning won't be a bad one.

One last thing. I wanted to comment on the slew of article regarding Chip Caray, Steve Stone, and the Cubs, but I think I'm going to tackle it over at Goat Riders this afternoon. So, make sure to head over there later, like you already don't. (And if you don't, what's wrong with you? Goat Riders is an awesome blog!)

CUBS LOSE AGAIN

Although they outscored their opponents 21-19, the Cubs find themselves a game under .500 going into their home opener tomorrow against the Brewers. The good news is, they won't have to play many more games before they start winning. Kerry Wood pitches tomorrow.

In fact, the only concern I have for the team is really Ryan Dempster. Don't get me wrong, I still think he could have a Clement-like season. It's the second year after Tommy John, and chances are, he'll find his stuff. But much as I feared yesterday, Dempster extended his poor Spring Training play into the regular season, and was pounded on like a Baptist minister's pulpit.

But even if Dempster fails to be an effective starting pitcher, there's nothing to fear. The Cubs have a young ace at Triple A by the name of Angel Guzman, and the worse Dempster does, the sooner Guzman will arrive in Chicago.

WHAT DOES STEVE STONE WANT?

I find myself questioning the motivation of Steve Stone. As many of you are aware, since leaving WGN, Stone has become the Cubs' most vocal critic, blasting Kerry Wood for poor pitching mechanics and Carlos Zambrano for being...well, Carlos Zambrano. The Tribune posted a piece today about how Stone has been irking the team. In the article, Dusty Baker was quoted as saying, "He's doing his job and he's on a radio station opposite WGN, and I guess his comments come out regularly in a newspaper opposite the Tribune. You can't stop somebody from saying what they want to say. The only thing is, it makes it more difficult when you come around doing interviews after certain comments."

Sure, he's doing his job. Personally, I think Stoney is saying, "You thought I was critical? I'll show you critical." Either that or he's bitter, and is carrying out a vendetta against the Cubs because of the way the 2004 season ended.

Or he could genuinely be taking an unbiased approach, although obviously the positives he says about the team won't get press like the negatives. Either way, it feels like a distraction to me. Hopefully it won't to the players.

PRIOR WATCH, THE NEXT GENERATION

If I knew that Mark Prior was going to start the season on the DL two years in a row, I would've created a Prior watch graphic. Regardless, that would've been fairly unnecessary, as Prior pitches today for the Iowa Cubs. He's expected to throw 80 to 90 pitches, and if it goes well, he'll be back with the Cubs in five days. Take some solace in that.

MADDUX BLASTED

It's nothing to be worried about. Greg Maddux got rocked last night, giving up five earned runs in five innings pitched, including two homeruns to Luis Gonzalez. He left the game with a 5-3 deficit (the 3 for the Cubs came off of a second inning blast by Todd Hollandsworth). The Cubs battled back, and even threatened in the 8th and 9th, but they couldn't score the necessary runs.

I have one complaint about how it turned out. James actually already voiced those feelings in the comments section. During the crunch-time, Dusty Baker decided that his two best pinch hitters were Jose Macias and Neifi Perez, rather than Jason Dubois and Jerry Hairston Jr. I'm not a big fan of second guessing the manager, but I'm just going to say it straight out: Dusty should've known better.

But, it's nothing to be worried about. Lately, Maddux has had rocky starts to his seasons, but he has the tendency to turn it around in May. As for April, Greg might be good for one win. Otherwise, let's hope that Ryan Dempster improves upon his Spring Training numbers, where he was lit up like Vegas during gambling season. (Hell, it's always gambling season at Vegas.)

Tonight, Dempster faces off against Brandon Webb. I'm expecting a victory. Oh, and one final note about tonight's game: it was moved up from 10 EST to 9 EST, so don't forget, or you might miss the first three or four innings of the game.

WHAT'S NEW IN BASEBALL

Paul Sullivan writes that it's time to fix the broken relationship between Mark Grace and the Chicago Cubs. Sully has a point. I always liked Grace, although he was never an offensive marvel. It'd be nice to think of him as a Cub again, rather than a D-Back.

According to the Sun-Times, Mark Prior will be the opening day starter... in Iowa. Depending on how he pitches, he'll be with the team on April 12th. I almost typoed August 12th... let's hope it's not that far down the line.

Random note: it's interesting that the Chicago press isn't really discussing the seven minor league Cubs who were suspended for steroid use. I wish someone would look into it more.

The real life Rick Vaughn was put on unconditional release waivers yesterday, because he's out of options. Scott Boras, Ankiel's agent, has stressed that he's not going to pitch anymore. Yeah, and pretty soon, he won't be playing baseball either. So long, Rick.

ONE DOWN, 119 TO GO

That was a hell of a game, eh? It's been a while since I saw such a raw display of offensive dominance by the Cubs. In fact, I haven't seen anything like it since... 2003.

First, some thoughts on the game. The offense was brilliant, which means that tomorrow will actually be close. But how did the hitters do, individually? First, Corey Patterson surprised many caustic Cub fans by taking the first pitch he saw. Then, he shocked us more by drawing the first walk of any Cub. And, ultimately, he went 3 for 5 with 2 RBI and one particularly embarrassing strike out. Hopefully he'll have fewer of those this season.

Second, Aramis "Sammy Who?" Ramirez was HUGE today. He must've been feeling pretty good after learning that he'll be earning 42 million over the next four years, and he displayed that joy by crushing the ball twice, one for a homerun, and again for a double high off the center field wall. All told, he was responsible for four RBI.

Third, Derrek Lee. Our prolifically slow-starting first baseman went 4 for 6 and was just a triple short of the cycle.

But let's also not forget journeymen Todd Walker and Jeromy Burnitz, who had six hits of their own today. Good job guys.

As for Carlos himself, well, I knew he wouldn't last long with all those full counts. The unfortunate thing is his rather conspicuous exit. Hopefully we won't see him leaving the game that early again, for any reason. Regardless, I just loved watching the Moose chug along after he hit that double. In a way, it makes me think of how Babe Ruth must've looked like when he ran the bases.

Other items of note:

Major League Baseball laid down their first steroid suspensions today, including a whopping seven against Cubs minor leaguers. These seven players were Oscar Bernard, David Cash, Matthew Craig, Carlos Vazquez, Robinson Chirinos, and two players who were immediately released: Jesus Medrano and Kevin Reinking. I'll try to get more information on these players tomorrow.

In the meantime, let's just bask in this victory. It's always great to start the season out with a win!

DREAM FIELD

With the baseball season starting tonight (and the Cubs season starting tomorrow), Carolyn and I sat down earlier tonight to watch the final baseball movie that I Must Watch, Field of Dreams.

I don't need to say that it's a hell of a movie. I think that's pretty clear to most anyone. Furthermore, this movie above all others makes me want it to be summer - something that's like the horizon: visible at a distance, but never obtainable. It's been snowing pretty badly here in Toronto these last few days.

Now that I've seen FoD before the start of the season again, the Cubs are in the clear. Now, nothing can stop them.

One thought about the author of Field of Dreams (aka "Shoeless Joe,") I was saddened to discover that W.P. Kinsella has distanced himself from the game in the last 10 years. In fact, he's pretty much given up on the sport, ever since the strike of '94.

I don't know how to react to that. I'm a bit disappointed, I guess. To be honest, I want to find him (he lives in Calgary), and kidnap him the way the fictional Ray Kinsella kidnapped J.D. Salinger, with the point of taking him to a game, and exposing him again to the beauty that is baseball. Otherwise, it's just a shame for someone who used to love the game so much to dislike the game as greatly as he does.

Regardless, the season starts tomorrow. I can't wait.

WELCOME TO THE SHOW, BIG BOY



It's official. Dave Kelton has cleared waivers and will be sent down to the minor leagues. As a consequence, Jason Dubois is officially a major leaguer. This is great news for Dubheads like myself, who feel he could be a great player at the major league level. An aside: Todd Wellemeyer will be the 12th pitcher on the major league team. Now, Dusty just has to give these guys a genuine shot at, you know, playing. We'll see how that goes.

This is all a far cry from the deathly bad years of the 90's. Back then, Cubs major league prospects included guys like Derrick May, Rey Sanchez, Kevin Roberson, Steve Traschel, and Shawn Boskie (all products of the Cubs farm system, all participants of the atrocious 1994 season).

Compare that to the players who've come out of the farm system today. Guys like Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Jason Dubois, Corey Patterson, and relievers like Wellemeyer, Wuertz, and Leicester. And that doesn't even include a few other products of the Cubs farm system, like Derrek Lee (acquired for Cubs prospect Hee Seop Choi) and Aramis Ramirez (acquired for Cubs prospect Bobby Hill).

Couple that with the knowledge that there are more players on the way... guys like Angel Guzman, Richard Lewis (acquired from Atlanta for Cubs prospect Juan Cruz), Sergio Mitre, Ryan Harvey, Felix Pie, Brian Dopirak, Bobby Brownlie, and Matt Muron (who the Cubs acquired along with Nomar).

I don't think it's too wrong to say that things have gotten a hell of a lot better in the last ten years.

Let's hope they stay that way.

SEASON SERIES: CUBS v. D-BACKS

I'm going to try for something new here at the Cub Fan Nation: series previews and recaps. One thing I noticed after last season was that my posts tend to be very topical and random, which means I can read through my archives and not necessarily get a reasonable understanding of how the season has progressed. This year, I want the Cub Fan Nation to be a little more complete in that regard, so hopefully I'll be able to say something about every game, good or bad. (I guess it didn't help last year that the Cubs sometimes depressed me too much to write about.)

Anyway, with that in mind, here's a look at the first series of the season, the Cubs against the Diamond-Backs.

Monday April 4th, 5:10 PM EST:Carlos Zambrano (1-0, 1.35 ERA) v. Javier Vazquez (1-1, 6.66 ERA)
Tuesday April 5th 9:40 PM EST:Greg Maddux (1-0, 5.82 ERA) v. Russ Ortiz (2-2, 7.94 ERA)
Wednesday, April 6th 9:40 PM EST:Ryan Dempster (0-2, 9.68 ERA) v. Brandon Webb (2-0, 5.88 ERA)

Game Notes:
*The Cubs were 2-4 against the D-Backs last season.
*Ryan Dempster is the expected third starter, although nothing is official just yet
*Kerry Wood is expected to start the home opener, while Mark Prior is projected to make his debut on April 12th, against the Padres in Chicago

Projections:
Tough to say. Almost all Cubs fans share a secret fear, because of the disastrous 1994 start, where the Cubs went 0-14. With Zambrano on the mound, that shouldn't happen in 2005. As far as Maddux and Dempster go, Greg is an enigma to me. Chances are, his final season in the Major Leagues will be a rough one for him. He's just lost too much off of his pitches to assume he won't continue to deteriorate. But is that going to happen this year? You've got me. But one stat to look at is Greg's three-year splits for April. In the last three years, Maddux has gone 6-6 with a 5.10 ERA. Subsequently, he's gone 8-4 with a 3.42 ERA in May, but first months have been rocky for our future Hall of Famer.

Dempster is an even bigger enigma. He's been a shaky starter at best for the duration of his career, and he's had a rocky Spring Training. But he's still only 27, and it's conceivable that he could put together a Clement-like season in 2005. Time will tell, but I'm not about to predict his final record. Nor am I going to predict the Cubs opening series. But I will predict that Prior will be back mid-month, and the Cubs rotation will be hitting on all cylinders by May (because I expect to see Guzman by then).

SECOND MOVIE DOWN

As mentioned in a previous post, I maintain a yearly superstition of needing to watch several baseball movies before the start of any season. In part, it's to get me in the mood for the coming year, but it's also because I find the Cubs do better when I see all of the movies.

Tonight, I saw the second movie on my list, Robert Redford's The Natural. I think I'm getting old.

I love The Natural. Don't get me wrong. I love it in spite of its Hollywood ending. I love it in spite of the fact that they completely went against the ending that was in the book. (Hint: Roy Hobbs doesn't exactly lead the Knights to the World Series.) In fact, The Natural is one of only a handful of movies that has the ability to send chills running up and down my body. That's how moving the ending is to me. Or at least, it used to be.

Maybe I'm getting old. Maybe it's because I've seen it so often, although I didn't watch it last year (and the Cubs did miss the playoffs, so that'll show you!) But for whatever reason, for the first time in memory, there were no chills running up and down my spine. Maybe it's because I kept thinking about steroids any time Roy Hobbs performed a miraculous feat. Maybe I'm just becoming cynical, and I couldn't buy into the Hollywood Ending. I don't know.

Anyway, that's two movies down, and chills or no chills, the Natural is still a hell of a movie!

THIS IS NO JOKE

Damn them. Damn the Blue Jays. If you recall, I wrote a month ago about how incredibly cheap season passes were to Blue Jay games. They are $162 Canadian for a full season. $2 a game. Amazing.

As a baseball fan, I found it very hard to justify NOT spending that kind of money on a season ticket. Even though I'm not a fan of the Jays, or really of the American League, $2 a game is just too cheap to pass up. But, because I'm poor and unemployed, I ultimately decided to let it go.

Then, they upped the ante.

Now, they aren't just selling season passes for $162. They're selling them Buy One, Get One Free. That's right. Two seasons tickets to Major League baseball games for $162. $1 Canadian a game. Even if we only went to 30 home games a season, that would work out to be $3.50 or so a game. If we went to 20, it would be $5.50 a game, give or take.

So, although we haven't officially decided, it looks like my girlfriend and I will be getting season tickets to Blue Jays games.

The bastards.

LINE 'EM UP pt. 2

Lots of news for today. First, Dusty has announced his opening day line up, and it looks like this (along with their current spring numbers): Note: I know that Spring Stats are as good as meaningless. I'm including them anyway.

CF Patterson .250, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 5 2B, 3 SB, lots of K's, 0 walks
2B Walker .238, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 2B
SS Garciaparra .444, 6 HR, 16 RBI
3B Ramirez .364, 1 HR, 5 RBI
RF Burnitz .347, 3 HR, 12 RBI
1B Lee .383, 3 HR, 15 RBI
LF Hollandsworth .357, 0 HR, 8 RBI
C Barrett .273, 2 HR, 7 RBI
SP Zambrano .250, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Probable Bench:
Hairston Jr. .383, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 steals
Dubois .283, 4 HR, 8 RBI
Perez .233, 1 HR, 6 RBI
Blanco .378, 1 HR, 7 RBI
Macias .233, 0 HR, 3 RBI

Left in the cold:
Kelton .318, 1 HR, 6 RBI

My thoughts on this line-up: It's what everyone expected, but it's disappointing. Yes, I know Derrek Lee feels comfortable in the lower half of the line-up. Big deal. The guy is a pure #2 hitter, and he'd do a considerably better job than Todd Walker.

Regarding Patterson's strikeouts-to-walks line, I can't find the numbers anywhere, but last I knew, he had something like 14 k's and 0 walks. So much for all that work he did before everyone else reported.

We'll see how this plays out. I'm curious to see how often Dusty uses Dubois. I anticipate being disappointed. But hopefully, this is the team that's too good for Dusty to ruin.

Hopefully.

IN THE NEWS

Jim Hendry and Adam Katz are meeting in Vegas this weekend with the hopes of signing Aramis Ramirez to a long-term contract. Ramirez said in the off season that he wants a contract somewhere in the vicinity of 4 years for 40-52 million.

Dave Hansen won't be making the team, to the shock of fans everywhere who know about Dusty Baker. Just speculation on my part, but perhaps Hansen will sign a minor league deal with the team, with the hopes of playing his way back into the Major Leagues when the team cuts down by a pitcher. (Note: I am aware that the team outright released him.)

Joe Borowski received some great news yesterday. His broken right wrist showed some drastic improvement, which might cut his recovery time in half. We'll see how it plays out, but it'd be nice to have Borowski back in early May.

Carlos Zambrano is considered one of the best pitchers in baseball by many of his peers. Well, duh. Plus, he's gunning for Jason Bay. According to the article, The Moose has Bay's baseball card taped to his locker for motivation. (Bay is 5 for 11 in his career against Carlos, with three homeruns and two doubles.) I think it'll be pretty funny if it backfires, and Zambrano konks the guy in his head the first time they play, but that's probably just me.

A YEAR AGO, I WENT TO THE DARK SIDE

It was a year ago today when I quit the Cubs. That's right. I was so fed up with the team that I said, "the hell with this!" And, I turned my blog into a White Sox site, overnight. The layout changed, the color scheme changed, and my IQ dropped by over 100 points.

Then, everyone realized it was April the First.

This year, there are no pranks by me. At least, I haven't planned anything just yet. But I will say that it feels like it's been a lot longer than a year. A lot has changed since then.