I CAME BACK FOR THIS??!

Six days without the internet.

Actually, it went by pretty fast and I didn't really miss it. My family and I stayed at a Great Aunt's cabin off of Moose Head Lake in Maine. We spent our time watching one of five available chanels while playing Double Dragon and Tetris on our Gameboys. It was 1989 all over again.

Six days without the internet.

You would've thought something would've happened. On Saturday I bought the Boston Herald, hoping to discover some tidbit of news regarding the Cubs. I found out that the Red Sox were resigning their backup catcher, and... well... nothing. That was it.

So, it's a slow winter thus far. Players aren't signing early. For all I know, teams aren't offering, either. Historically the Cubs tend to make all their moves within a period of two to four days, so once the ball gets rolling, hopefully there will be a flurry of activity.

During my vacation, I tried to explain to Carolyn that a baseball fan must maintain a "What have you done for me lately" mentality. I like Jim Hendry. The man has consistantly made good moves, and he might be the best Cubs GM since Dallas (the man, not the tv show). However I never expect him to do well - I expect him to flounder. I expect the worst out of the Cubs, beause two or three years of Hendry doesn't negate Ed Lynch or any of the other schmucks I've seen run the club.

But I do think Hendry is good. I expect something big.

GROTA NEWS

To be honest I sorta expected goatriders.org to be up and running when I returned (I gave the keys to Byron who had some ideas). Yet when I got home nothing was doing just yet, so I am going to grab my girlfriend when she gets home from volunteering and we'll work out some basic website stuff, hopefully today (although we are busy in a million other directions as well).

I want to get it going, and I sense that others are getting impatient... so it should be soon.

ON VACATION

It's a long, complicated week for me. First, I recently immigrated to Toronto, Ontario to live with my girlfriend. I came up on Sunday.

Today I go back to New York, to meet with my mother, so we can all drive to Maine for Thanksgiving. On Sunday or Monday, I'll return to Toronto.

So, why didn't I just move up after Thanksgiving? Well, it was mostly a matter of my girlfriend not owning a car, and needing to take a bus if I wasn't able to get her a ride, and you couldn't possibly care less, could you?

Anyway, my computer isn't hooked up to the internet yet, but it will be, eventually. At that point goatriders.org will get off the ground and I'll start posting more often.

Hopefully when I get back on Sunday, the Cubs will have done something worth discussing.

THREE ARMS, ONE BRAIN
Part II

The biggest surprise of the 2004 season was probably Carlos Zambrano. Not that anyone expected him to suck, but I think we were all shocked and impressed when he stepped up and became the ace of the rotation last year. Zambrano had perhaps the most underrated season of any pitcher on the Cubs in 2003, and he improved upon it pretty nicely last year. I still remember watching Z's first outing in the major leagues. He came in as a reliever in 2001. He showed a lot of potential - even a schmuck like me could see the late movement in his pitches, but at that young age he wasn't really a complete pitcher and although he had his flashes of brilliance, he got rocked.

Then in 2002, he began to refine it... a 3.66 ERA in 108.1 innings pitched. But I think it might've been until 2003 that the thing most Cub fans thought of him was his physique... he reminded us all of Jamie Navarro, and not in any sort of good way. Yet I doubt anyone has thought that of Z any time recently.

Last year Carlos gave up 14 homeruns in 209.2 innings pitched... not a bad number. In 2003, he only gave up 9 homers. In 4.1 fewer innings, Zambrano won 3 more games, lost 3 fewer, struck out 20 more opposing hitters, walked 13 fewer, and allowed 14 fewer hits. And he's only 23. (Or perhaps 25, but that's still not bad.)



So, how long did it take last year for Cub fans to accept that Maddux pitching in a Cubs uniform wasn't a mirage? What wasn't a mirage was Maddux's steady performance. Ok, so he was spotty at the beginning and the end, but like usual, Maddux won 16 games, lost 11, walked only 33, and actually struck out 27 more this year than he did last year, in about 6 fewer innings. He also gave up a whopping 35 homeruns, 11 more than his previous worst. Oh, and he also won another Gold Glove.

I think Greg can be counted on for about the same next year. He's not a front-line ace, but he's still dependable - moreso than our other ace, Kerry Wood, but he probably has 1/5th of the stuff. That actually is my way of explaining the post title. Three arms, one brain. Kerry, Mark, and Carlos are incredible pitchers who could easily pitch this team into the post season. And while I wouldn't call any of them stupid, I think they accomplish this because of their wicked ability to throw the ball.

And then there's 86 mph heater Greg Maddux, getting by on guts and sly.

So, while this wasn't intended to be the grades post, I don't think I'll get more in depth about the rotation, so I might as well just spit 'em out. So here they are.

Kerry Wood: D
Mark Prior: D+
Carlos Zambrano: A
Greg Maddux: A
Matt Clement: C-
Glendon Rusch: B

I'll try to get to the bullpen before I disappear into the Canadian wilderness tomorrow morning.

THREE ARMS, ONE BRAIN
Part I.

We Cub fans are realists more now than ever. I mean sure, for every Uncouth Sloth, Forklift, and Stew, you still have your Jim Heckles, but even three years ago, could anyone imagine 40,000 Cub fans booing the everloving crap out of Sammy Sosa and LaTroy Hawkins? That said, we have to remember that closer or no closer, leadoff hitter or no leadoff hitter, our team still has possibly the best rotation any of us has ever seen. Had either Kerry Wood or Mark Prior been healthy all year long, the Cubs probably would've faced St. Loser in the NLCS. As it is, both were disappointing.

Wood finished 8-9 with a 3.72 ERA - his worst record ever, and his highest ERA since he came back from elbow surgery. In fact, were you so inclined, you could compare Wood's season to his '00 season in a lot of ways... in 2000, Wood threw 23 games for 137 innings pitched. He gave up 112 hits, struck out 132, and walked 87 while going 8-7 with a 4.80 ERA. Last year Wood threw 22 games for 140.1 innings pitched. He gave up 127 hits, but struck out 144 and walked only 51.

The hits are a bad sign, the walks are a great one. Wood had a 2.82 K/BB ratio last year, the best of his career. It would be more impressive but his K/9 ratio was down considerably. With the hits, Wood allowed a .240 average against him, far and away the worst of his career (for a comparison point, 18 game winner and Cy Young candidate Carl Pavano had a K/BB ratio of 2.84, and allowed a .253 average against him, so there have to be other factors for Wood's higher ERA and significantly worse record). Regardless, even a .240 average against isn't bad, it's just not up to Wood's normal standards.

Going beyond statistics, I think it's pretty easy to say that the reason Wood has so much trouble is that he almost always seems to have little run support, and to also have problems keeping teams in check during the 3rd and 4th innings. If Wood ever masters those innings, he will be a Cy Young winner.

As for Prior, I think his collapse in 2004 was perhaps the single greatest kick in the nuts that we Cub fans dealt with last year. He wasn't supposed to be a question mark... he's The Franchise. But even the great Greek warrior Achilles had a weakness, and... well, you know where that one was going. A lot of Cub fans, myself included, believe that half of Mark's problems last year were mental, and half were mechanics. From what I've read (since I know jack about mechanics), his release point was spotty last year, but in the last half dozen starts he was able to find it.

He was also, at some points, compared to Bobby Fischer. In 2003, he had this uncanny ability to just toy with the opposition. They could hit him, but never when it counted, and they knew it. And he knew they knew it, and he rubbed it in their faces. Not so much this year. In fact at one point, Prior's inability to get the big out became so epidemic that many of us were wondering if the Game Six Collapse of last year had wrecked him in some way.

But then, something happened near the end there. Prior began to get hitters out. On September 15th, Mark's ERA was at 4.87. That's Estes territory, not Franchise Territory. But from that point forward, it dropped a full 0.85 over his last three starts. He gave up only two earned runs over his last 26.1 innings of the season, while striking out 32 and walking only 4.

What's that? A 0.68 ERA with a K/BB ratio of 8 to 1 and a 10.94 K/9 ratio? Classic Franchise. So, how will 2005 go for Mark Prior? I think it'll go a lot better than 2004.

One way or the other, this team will compete.

BUSTER OLNEY, SHADDAP ALREADY!

Today at ESPN, Buster Olney writes that the Mets trading for Sosa would be a colossal mistake. Buster, no shit, I guess you're not a Cubs fan.

Of course it's not a good deal to take on Sosa! He's old, he makes a ton of money, he's on the decline, he's got an ego the size of the entire Wrigley outfield. The Cubs used to rely on Sammy's offense. Now, with Ramirez and Lee around for a few years, a homer-hitting right fielder isn't so essential.

So, what Sosa trade would I want to do, if I had my choice? Probably Sosa for Green would be interesting, but I also have a hankering for Sosa and Lee to Colorado for Todd Helton. Helton is perhaps the greatest hitter of our era, and while his numbers are obviously going to be better at Coors Field than at anywhere else, he can still hit, and may produce well at Wrigley anyway.

Otherwise, the sleeper Sammy trade that I want the most is Sammy to the Washington Nationals for, I dunno, pitching of any kind.

But it won't happen if jerks like Olney keep writing articles about what a big mistake it'd be to trade for Sammy. So, Buster, I have only this to say to you:



'nuff said?

SITUATION AVOIDED

And just like that, Troy Percival will not be a Cub. On the heels of the Tribune's reporting that Percival was coming to Wrigley tomorrow, the Tigers have announced a two year 12 million dollar deal. Makes me wonder just how much Benitez will go for later this winter.

This creates a few options for the Cubs regarding a closer. Ugueth Urbina, the man Percival will replace, should be available now for trade. Urbina will make 4 million next year. Last year he saved 21 while blowing 3, coupled with a 4.50 ERA and 1.75 K/BB ratio. The catch is that while he is probably better than his 4.50 ERA, he's a bit of a risk in general. He missed significant time last season while attending to his mother's kidnapping situation back in Venezuela. Who knows where he'll be next year, mentally speaking?

Otherwise, on the free agent market there is now only one Uber Closer still available, and he's bound to be overpriced and overrated. Yeah, Armando Benitez had a great year last year, and has a career ERA under 3, but his mettle in the post season is questionable at best. And there's no way he pitches as well as he did in 2004.

That said, unless the Cubs make a surprise trade, he's probably the only real choice out there. I'd even take him over Urbina.

Other free agents who interest me...

Eric Young is available. He's old and due to fall off a cliff soon, but in his last stay in Chicago he proved to be a valuable team leader. He can play pretty much any position, though not spectacularly, and he can actually draw walks and steal bases, while also being capable of hitting the double. The Cubs need that kind of guy desperately, and I hope someone gives him a ring. Last year he made a million dollars, and should he be willing to come to Chicago for around the same price, I think he's a worthy risk.

Barry Larkin is another old guy who's available. He probably will want to start, but if there's a possibility that he'd be willing to be a bench/support guy in order to have one final shot at winning another World Championship, then maybe he'd want to come to Chicago. Neifi could then play third primarily (assuming he can play third) and the Cubs would again have another leader on a team void of them with the capability of actually hitting off the bench.

Just a few thoughts on it. I don't typically think that going with old guys who could Gaetti on us is a great idea, but hell, no way can they be worse than Martinez/Macias, even if they offensively collapse, and old guys off the bench might be a better way to go, since there are no incredible bench specialists available this year.

THE CUBS GET A PROVEN CLOSER? THAT'S IMPERCIVAL!



Sorry, sorry, couldn't resist. So, the Tribune has reported that the Cubs are planning on meeting with Troy Percival at Wrigley Field to discuss a possible signing, which will be decided no later than Thanksgiving weekend.

Sure, the Cubs need a closer, but I don't think Percival is the right choice. He's 35-years-old, he has a history of nagging arm problems, he's losing some zip off his fastball, his K/BB ratio has been declining steadily since 2001 (from 3.94 to 1.74), and he hasn't thrown more than 57.2 innings in a year since 1998. In fact, he has only averaged 53.1 innings pitched a year in the last six years.

Ok, ok, he would be better than LaTroy. And in theory, Borowski may be back next year so if Percival goes down, Joe Blow could step back in and resume closer duties. But it's still a pretty big risk when you consider that the Cubs will need a closer to succeed in the post season. On a positive note, in the 2002 post season Percival had 7 saves and none blown, with a 2.79 ERA.

ASSORTED CRAP

Yesterday I mentioned some interesting free agents, including $.$. Drew. In case you were wondering, the "$.$." is pronounced "Bling Bling."

I will get around to grading our pitchers, I just haven't had the chance as of yet. Isn't it weird that a guy with an ERA in the 2's is going to get a D, or maybe even an F? Maybe LaTroy Hawkins is yet another example of a player who grew up a Cubs fan, came to Chicago, and royally SUCKED. I'm not sure if he's a fan, but perhaps that's a good reason to not deal Sammy for Cliff Floyd, a Chicago native.

...Nah. There's no such thing as a bad reason to deal Sammy Sosa.

WAR, PESTILENCE, FAMINE, AND SLOTH

GROTA news - I am very, very happy to announce that fellow Cub blogger alumni the Uncouth Sloth will be joining the Goat Riders of the Apocalypse. The Sloth is one of the more controversial writers in the Cubs blogosphere, and also one of the most witty and insightful. I've known Rob through the internet for probably at least five years, and he's always been a must-read. Hopefully the thousands upon thousands of Cub fans who will someday discover the Goat Riders will agree.

TRADES AND FREE AGENTS

Dear Sammy, millions of Cub fans want to know, where ya goin? Will Cliff Floyd be a Cub next year? Or Shawn Green? Perhaps Preston Wilson? Mike Piazza?! Kevin Brown?

If the Cubs could sign any one free agent on the market this year, who would you want it to be? Ok, ok, besides Mickey Beltran.

Maybe $.$. Drew? Or Troy Percival? Or Mel Benitez?

There are several low rent/high risk lefty starters out there who are available to the Cubs. They are Al Lieter, 39, 10-8 last year for a horrid Mets team, but with a 3.21 ERA, and Boomer Wells, 42 for most of next year, 12-8 with a 3.73 ERA. If the Cubs want a guy for one year, they'll go with Leiter or Wells. If they want someone for two or three, perhaps they'll bring back Jon Lieber, who didn't have a bad first year back from arm surgery with the Yankees.

Lieber and Wells have immense control. Wells is going to be 42, has a bad back, and will see the wheels come off sooner or later. But I'd take either of those guys to Lieter, who saw his k/bb ratio drop to 1.21 last year. It has dropped substantially every year since 2001, so maybe it's time for Lieter to hang up the cleats and call ball games for Fox.

Here's betting the Cubs nab someone decent to pitch, and here's betting they pick someone up soon.

DEPARTURES AND OTHER CHANGES

I will be moving to Canada in less than a week. No, I'm not leaving because of the election results, but I did stay this long specifically to vote.

Since my last post, Will Carrol has closed up shop (due in part, I suspect, to an infestation of trolls). So has the Uncouth Sloth, probably for the same reason. Derrek of the Big Red C has moved to all-baseball.com, which naturally has sparked some jealousy on my part as I had just weeks ago attempted to convince Derrek to move to my upcoming GROTA site, but without success. It just goes to show: when Ruz calls, you answer. He's the Cub Blogger Nation's Uncle Sam.

Speaking of, GROTA will begin very soon. Any site suggestions would be appreciated, and I'd also like feedback on the possible name. At this point, it's looking like it'll be www.grota.biz. It could also be www.grota.us, www.grota.info, or something like www.goatriders.org.

Does anyone have any thoughts on which one would be better? I really want to know. More Cubs stuff tomorrow, I swear it.

SO LONG, BRIAN

Probably 8 or 10 months ago, I stumbled across the Red Bird Nation, probably through Ruz's site. It was amazing, informative, intelligent. Sadly, so soon after I learned of its existence (and believe me, 10 months isn't long enough) Brian will be closing his doors and moving on to other (and hopefully BETTER) things.

Thanks for making me want to read about the Cardinals, Brian. I never thought that would happen.

CONVENT ME

I woke up yesterday morning to the shocking realization that Cubs Convention tickets were on sale. I've always wanted to go, and after pleading with Carolyn (moving to Canada is expensive, and so is the Cubs Convention), we decided to buy tickets.

We wound up with eight of them. Carolyn wanted to cancel four of the tickets, but I told her to put 'em up on ebay. At this late hour she's made a good $200 profit on them.

To the Cub fans reading this who wanted tickets, didn't get them, and now have to deal with money-grubbing schlubs such as myself, just remember that I'm poor and your contribution through ebay will help pay for my trip.

I will be starting GROTA very soon, and on behalf of my soon-to-be website, I will attempt to interview and question Cub players of interest - and maybe start a "Steve Stone Rocks!" chant when Dusty enters the room - and then post whatever I get.

If any of you are going, let me know and maybe we can meet up. I've only met a handful Cub fans I knew on the net, but it's always a fun experience.

BACK TO BASEBALL

I would be posting a bit more often if blogger wasn't a crash whore.

So, I still have to post evaluations on the pitchers, and discuss things like the upcoming GM's meeting, and the possible trade for Sammy So-sad.

I'd take Shawn Green; I'd prefer Cliff Floyd, but if the Rockies would deal Helton to the Cubs for Sosa, Lee, and maybe throw in someone else, I'd do it. Helton is the best hitter of our era, Barroid Bonds excluded.

I'll post later; just wanted you to know I'm still alive.

THE MOMENT OF CHANGE

It's not very often that the world changes in so notable a way that both the old and young can stop and see the change occur around them, like air molecules drenched in the golden sunlight of an autumn dusk. Yet these moments occur, perhaps as often as blue moons; perhaps as rarely as leap years.

I don't need to tell you that we live in a world of change and chaos. We live in a time of innocence ending, and where we walk now will be remembered always. These are the days and actions that will be repeated in story again and again for the rest of our society's future history, and the most amazing thing is that we now decide the course of that history. I know this: we will be heroes, but whether we will be defined by our flaws or by our virtues is still something we are deciding at this late hour.

My message to you is this: we no longer have to be afraid. We no longer must embrace fear as though it is an old lover or friend. Our best days are yet to come, and if we maintain the courage of our convictions those days will be sooner rather than later. I tell you this because today is the day we can vote for change. Today is the day we can vote to ease our conscience and strengthen our hope, and we can do it by simply voting for a man named John Kerry. The days of our shame as Americans can be over, the hours in which we hide behind our fear can be passed. Amazingly we are the deciders of our destiny, and I ask you how many societies are allowed that privilege? How many societies can change the very course of future history in the moment of greatest need?

I believe that a vote for Kerry is a vote for a stronger future - a future where we will no longer need to be afraid. Already, I am not afraid.

I hope you won't be afraid either, and if you're reading this and are American and registered to vote, I beg that you do. Even if it's for George W. Bush. But a vote for Bush is a vote for fear, and I for one am tired of fearing anything.

SEASON GRADES pt. 2

THE OUTFIELD

Left Field: Moises Alou B
Last Year: Alou: B, O'Leary D-
Why a B: For his total production, you'd think I'd've given Moises a higher grade. Instead, I have to say I wound up losing a lot of respect for Alou this year. He made terrible base running blunders, he argued far too often with the umpires, and he constantly complained about Chip and Steve. So, while Alou led the team with 39 homeruns, drove in 106 RBI, and batted .293, Alou only gets a B.
Why he should return: I don't think he should, although it's relatively possible that he may. The Cubs declined his option, but should they fail to upgrade, they may be inclined to sign him to a one year deal for probably half of what he made last season.
Why he should leave: He's old, he's cranky, and he'll be lucky to have another respectable season. Ultimately Moises proved to be a decent left fielder the last three years, but not to the tune of nearly 30 million dollars. Thanks Moises, goodbye.

Todd Hollandsworth: I (for incomplete), otherwise A
Why an I, or an A: Hollandsworth was clutch. Whether he was bouncing off walls or driving in runs, Hollandsworth was far more than advertised. Then he bounced a ball off his shin and spent the rest of the year on the DL, possibly costing the Cubs a game or two in the standings.
Why he should return: Should he? I don't know. He strikes me as an injury risk, and I doubt he'll perform like last year, but he is a solid enough backup outfielder. If he can come back at a similar price, I hope the Cubs give him another chance.
Why he should leave: He's an injury risk. His shin injury is pretty much a mystery, and who knows if he'll ever be reliable?

Ben Grieve: C (as a Cub), C+ (overall)
Why a C: Grieve was traded to Chicago in early August to replace a permanently indisposed Hollandworth. He went on to play adequate ball as a substitute player, but it wasn't exactly something to do cartwheels over. I suppose that's in part to the fact that he only managed 15 at bats in Chicago.
Why he should return: Grieve isn't a horrible player. He has some pop to his bat, he draws walks, and he can play left or right field adequately. If Hollandsworth doesn't return, Grieve should be an option.
Why he should leave: Grieve isn't going to be great, and he may be too costly. But if he'll come cheap, the Cubs should give him a look.

Center Field: Corey Patterson C
Last Year: Lofton: A+, Patterson I (or A+), Glanville F, Goodwin A
Why a C: Patterson had high expectations before the start of this season. He had just come off a year in which he batted .298, hit 13 homeruns, and stole 16 bases in just 83 games played. In fact, he carried the offense during part of the '03 season. This year, he was batting in the .290's as late as August before completely collapsing in September and finishing with a .266 average, along with 24 homeruns, 72 RBI, and 32 steals. He isn't a leadoff hitter, but he's fine as a #6 or #7 hitter, and still cheap.
Why he should return: Patterson will be 25 for most of next season. He will produce, but never the way we Cub fans expected him to. A good sign this year: he 45 walks in 631 at bats. That's still no good, but it's better than 43 walks in 1,094 at bats, his previous career total.
Why he should leave: I dunno. If the Cubs can acquire a tremendous leadoff hitting second baseman, or a very talented young outfielder with a higher ceiling than Patterson, maybe they should deal him. Otherwise, he'll be a Cub for at least a few more years.

Tom Goodwin: F
Why an F: Last year, Goodwin was great backup as a Cub. He hit .287 with 19 steals and 10 doubles in just 171 at bats. This year, in 105 at bats, he hit .200 with only 5 steals. Consider it an example of going to the well once too often.
Why he should return: (Insert cliched statement about Goodwin owning compromising pictures of Dusty Baker and a Californian Call Girl here)
Why he should leave: He's just done, as a player. I liked him in '03, but he was a waste in '04. At age 36, there's no reason to give him a shot in '05.

Right Field: Sammy Sosa: F
Last Year: Sosa: B+
Why an F: I wrote last year, "Most any other guy with his numbers gets a (better grade). However, too many distractions and controversies accompanied Sammy this season, and I would have to think it effected the clubhouse." What was true last year is true again this year. Sammy makes too much money to suck that badly, no matter how many homeruns he hits. There were too many clutch situations in which he tanked, too many game-winning opportunities that he flubbed.
Why he should return: I can't think of a single reason.
Why he should leave: Do you have all day? I might blog more about Sammy later today. If he never plays another game as a Cub, I'll be happy. He's the Dubbya of MLB. 'Nuff said, for now.