GONE UNTIL SEPTEMBER

Since this will be my final post until September 1st, I figured I'd make it a doozy. For those of you who don't know, I'm going on a road trip with Carolyn for the final two weeks of August. We'll be swinging through Cooperstown, then onto Boston, before crossing through Maine and into the eastern provinces of Canada. On the way home we'll be going through Quebec, where we will stop in Montreal to see the Cubs play the Expos.

Between now and September 1st, the Cubs are set to play Milwaukee and Houston a total of 13 times. Both teams are dangerous and particularly damaging to the Cubs. The Cubs are currently 2-5 against the Brewers this year, and 7-5 against the Astros. Actually I would like to paraphrase a coin: for the Cubs, the road to the post season goes through Milwaukee. It seems like every season they compete, the Cubs play relevant games against the Brewers. In 98, the Cubs played some heart-wrenchers against them. (Who will ever forget the Brant Brown game?) In 2001, the Cubs lost 3 games in a 5 game series to the Brewers in late August, and in 2003, the Cubs swept Milwaukee right in the middle of their definitive six game winning streak lasting from September 3rd-9th.

This August, the Cubs will face the Brewers six times. At the moment Milwaukee is own the down-trend - they're only 8-18 since the break. If they lay down and die for Chicago, our post season chances will be much improved. However, if they continue to give the team trouble, it will be marked as another series of games the Cubs should have won but didn't, and could lead to trouble down the home stretch. Personally, I'm more nervous about Houston. The Astros are 12-13 since the break, but they feature what should be a solid rotation in 42-year-old Roger Clemens, injury plagued Wade Miller (is he done for the year, or what?) Roy Oswalt, and injury-plagued Andy Pettitte. Likewise, they have a possibly fearsome offense, and I don't think they're going to quit until they are mathematically eliminated.

I believe that if the Cubs manage to win more than they lose over the next two weeks, they'll win the Wild Card. I also think they should go 12-6 during that time, and I'd even be satisfied with 10-8.

THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO BY SEPTEMBER

By the time September rolls around, Dusy will hopefully have learned to use Ryan Dempster in more of a capacity. Dempster is a cheap choice for closer next year, and should LaTroy continue to transform into Dave Smith, Dempster is my first choice for the team's new closer. Speaking of closers, No-Sweat Joe should begin a rehab assignment soon, and hopefully he'll be back in early September as the pitcher we once knew. When No-Sweat went down, I was hopeful that he'd be gone for the remainder of the year. However all reports I've read say that he's regained the zip on his fastball, and if he's the Borowski of old, he'll be a huge asset to the team.

Mark Prior will probably get four starts before September. If this is truly Our Year, he'll have worked out the kinks in his delivery and his confidence, and will also be a huge September asset. But if he doesn't, I personally wouldn't be opposed to shutting him down for the year and giving Rusch a shot at pitching every fifth day for the rest of the season.

For the next two weeks, all I'll have as a resource to hear about the Cubs will be whatever sports talk radio I can find on the AM, when Carolyn and I aren't reading books to each other. Also I'll probably start buying USA Today on a semi-regular basis, at least until we cross over into Canada. I think the next two weeks will be very telling about the Cubs. Most analysts think they're the best team to not lead a division, and hopefully the players share that level of confidence. Over at Redbird Nation, Brian Gunn has blogged about his own thoughts on the Cubs place. I think he - like many fans - has done the math and realized that if all goes smoothly, it'll be a Cubs/Cardinals NLCS this year. I don't know if I'd be capable of handling that.

FINAL THOUGHTS, AND FUN LINKS

Nothing is certain, but it at least seems likely that for the first time since the early 1970's, the Cubs will finish over .500, the first time they've done that in succeeding years since 1972. To me, that's not nearly enough. Expectations were high going into this season, and they haven't diminished. This year, it's not about going to Wrigley Field to enjoy the ballpark atmosphere - it's about going to see our Cubs WIN, and win often. By season's end, more than 3 million fans will have gone to Wrigley, for the first time in franchise history. I have friends who believed that would never happen. One thing I think we've all believed - even if it was in some dank closet corner, is that they could win a pennant some day. Well folks, it's been a hard journey, but it looks like someday could be this October. That journey isn't over, and it will remain hard through the final out. But I now believe they can compete in the post season, and I expect to see at least a two or three game Wild Card lead once I return from my own journey.

I've always been called an optimist - to a fault, by many. Yet this year, I've probably been more realistic than ever, to the alienation of my girlfriend and others. I was ready to give up on the Cubs after the Cardinals bitch-slapped them. Since then, The Nomar Trade (it should always be referred to in caps) has convinced me that this team won't quit, and the playoffs are theirs to lose. Should they fail to make it there, I'll be devestated. Should they make the post season only to be eliminated without a pennant, I'll be devestated. Last year, I said I'd be happy if the Cubs merely managed to beat the Braves in the post-season. I thought it was too early for a pennant. That they came so close only to fail crushed me, and I think I truly would've been far more ok with it had the Cubs been swept by the Marlins. This year, I'll settle for nothing less than a pennant, and I'll be cheering them on until they're mathematically eliminated.

For whatever reason, last October has been weighing heavily on my mind today. I've written before about how I've almost blocked out the '03 season. I remember Game Six against the Marlins. I remember counting down the outs. I remember the Bartman play. But what I don't remember is what happened after that. I don't remember the 8 runs that came that inning.

I wonder what Steve Bartman is up to these days? I think he's been forgiven by many fans. But until the Cubs win the pennant - and even then - I suspect he will be an infamous aspect of the Cubs Tradition. He'll be remembered almost as well as we remember Tinker, Evers, Chance, the Goat, Hack Wilson, and even Banks, Santo, and Billy Williams.

I hope this year, his conscience will be eased a bit. I believe it can happen.

More on all this in September.

Oh, and as for those links: Inspired by Despio, I might make a regular habit of this once I get back.

Baker admits that Sosa is a whining crap-bag who can't handle being booed by those who "love him."

The Cubs begin to realize that Farnsworth and the 9th inning are like ketchup and ice cream

Kerry Wood relearns how to strike out batters in clutch situations

I TRULY HATE SAMMY SOSA

I realize I might be accused of jumping on the bandwagon, but I just have to say that Sammy Sosa is a douchbag from hell. This asshole is costing the team in every way imaginable, especially in that he's costing them in money and in runs. This asshole is such a turd bag that he won't move down the lineup in spite of his royal suckitude.

Here the Cubs are in the heat of a playoff run, and here's Slumpin' Sammy Sosa. If Sammy read the papers he'd notice that over in St. Louis, star hitter Scott Rolen has volunteered to move down the lineup for newly acquired Larry Walker. Rolen is having a hell of a year. Sosa, meanwhile, is batting in front of at least two guys who are BETTER than him, but rather than help the team he has to placate his oversized ego.

If the Cubs fail to take advantage of their easy schedule and win the Wild Card, I place all blame on Shitface Sammy Sosa.

Thank God he'll be gone before '06.

BIG GAME TONIGHT

Tonight represents the rubber game between Chicago and San Diego. Matt Clement gets the nod. As much as I hate to say it, Clement is presently a better pitcher than Mark Prior. That's saying something, since Clement has about as much sack as a three-year-old girl.

Clement goes against Jake Peavy. Peavy is the best pitcher the Padres have; Clement is the hardest-luck loser the Cubs have. Of course, I think the Peavy is due to get rocked, Clement is due for a win. The one noticable weakness - Peavy has been on a relatively low pitch count. Chances are, once he hits 90 or 100 pitches, he'll get pulled. The Cubs need to be agressive at taking a pitch tonight; they need to run the pitch count up. Peavy only averages 6 innings an outing. If the Cubs can keep it close and knock him out of the game by the 6th inning, I think they have a good shot at winning.

OFF THE MARK?

I wonder how long Prior can suck before Cub fans start getting on him. Yes, he's the Golden Child; the Franchise; The Best Damned Pitcher to Ever Come Out of College, etc. etc. But fact is, he's the worst guy in the rotation right now. If I'm Dusty Baker and the Cubs make the playoffs, then Mark "Estes" Prior gets put in long relief - if he makes the post season roster at all.

There are still about two months left to go in the season. He can still pull his shit together. But right now he's the worst pitcher in the rotation, and the Cubs need to consider keeping him out of a short series if he can't return to, uh, Prior Form.

Hey. Someone had to say it.

THE WILD CARD(inals)

Reading today's article over at the Sun-Times featuring Mark Prior made me think.

If the season ended today, the Cubs would face the Dodgers in the playoffs while the Cardinals would face the Braves.

I feel pretty good in saying that the Cubs could take L.A. in a short series. Likewise, it seems pretty likely to me that the Cardinals would advance past the Braves.

My question is, do you think it's possible for the NLCS to overshadow the World Series? I believe it is possible, depending on the match ups. I also think that if the Cubs really did find themselves playing the Cardinals in the post season, it would be unbelieveably intense. It would also be totally heartbreaking to lose.

But if their last matchup was any indication, the Cubs and the Cardinals have a lot of unfinished business, and if certain guys are playing, there's also the possibility of a series of explosions (or implosions).

After thinking about it, I'd be all for the Cubs and Cardinals meeting in the NLCS. It'd be amazing. I'd be exciting. Tense. Dramatic. buuuuuuuuuut I don't think I want it to happen this year. Maybe it'd be better after the Cubs actually win a pennant. After all, if the Cubs get that monkey off their backs, losing an NLCS to the Cardinals wouldn't be quite as earth-shattering.

I guess I'm just a wuss.

THE HOME STRETCH

Today, unlike usual, I'm actually going to play the statistics game with you, my loyal readers.

The Cubs have 51 games left on the season. They'll be playing San Diego (3 games), L.A. (3 games), Milwaukee (6 games), Houston (7 games), Montreal (6 games), Florida (6 games), Pittsburgh (6 games), Cincinnati (8 games), the Mets (3 games), and Atlanta (3 games).

The combined record of the teams they oppose: 550-545. They will play 9 games against teams currently over .500, 3 games against a team currently at .500, and 39 games against teams currently with losing records.

Sounds pretty good, right? Just don't forget that some of those teams are better than their records - Houston in particular.

In contrast, San Diego, also with 51 games remaining, will play only 23 games against teams with losing records, 3 will be against a team with a .500 record, and 25 against teams with winning records (including 11 straight against the Dodgers and Giants).

Finally, San Francisco also with 51 games remaining, will play 27 games against teams with losing records (including an easy-as-pie 14 straight against the likes of Arizona, Colorado, and Milwaukee), 3 games against the .500 Marlins, and 21 against winning teams.

In case you'd like to check the schedules for yourselves, I hyperlinked them on the team names.

BELATED 300

You probably noticed that I haven't said anything about Maddux winning his 300th game. That's because of the season - 300 wins is the least important thing that'll happen this year. When the season is over, I sincerely hope that none of us will think of 2003 as the year Maddux won 300. Hopefully it will be the year that the Cubs won a pennant; the year Nomar became a Cub for years to come, and the start of something amazing. (Dare I say the "D" word?)

None the less, I am a very happy guy to see Maddux win it as a Cub. I truly hope that he'll stick around long enough to make his plaque team hat a hard decision for the Hall of Fame. But what I really hope is for a Cubs championship. This year, next year, every year. And they can do it.

BACK TO EARTH

4-2 for a road trip isn't too bad, although that series against the Giants was too important to lose. Actually, it reminded me of a few things. First, the Cubs are a team suffering from a depressing lack of fundamentals. Second, this is a team that should never let Nomar sit during a rubber game. Third, Sammy Sosa is not a star player. Not anymore. It almost causes me physical pain to watch him play.

I'll grant you that Sammy is not responsible for the shoddy defensive play of the team, or the shoddier baserunning of the team. However, fact is that Sammy is too cocky to make adjustments to his game, and it's costing the team. How many inning-killing double plays has Sammy grounded into? How many clutch strikeouts?

I now desperately pray that next year will be Sammy's last in Chicago. He's too expensive, and he's too costly at the plate.

All said, let's consider the Giants series an abberation. They were on the ropes and they came out of it winning the round. Next, the Cubs go home and play the Padres and Dodgers. Both series are important. I expect a minimum of four wins.

CUBS SWEEP

What's that? You mean, the Cubs actually swept a crappy team? The Cubs never sweep crappy teams! They always lose a game - sometimes two!

But, surprisingly, the Cubs are actually playing at the level we've been expecting from them since March.

Tomorrow the Cubs head into San Francisco. On Saturday, Maddux will try for win #300.

It's obviously great news that Prior went six scoreless. Likewise, Paul "Gabor" Bako managed to hit TWO singles - I guess that rarified Colorado air really helps out the hitters. Nomar didn't get a hit, leaving the bases juiced in the 7th. In fact, the #2, 3, and 4 hitters failed to accomplish much for the Cubs. Yet 5 runs were scored, and that's how it's supposed to happen.

I suppose even the great teams will find themselves experiecing days in which their middle lineup fails to accomplish anything. It's when the other guys in the lineup pick up the slack that makes the team great to begin with.

Good things could be coming to Chicago.

WHA' HAPPEN'D?

Tell me if you've heard this one before:

The Chicago Cubs fail to score much early in the game, allowing for their opponents to take an early lead. Then, their opponents score at least one run an inning from the sixth inning on.

Or:

The Cubs trail early on but manage to briefly take the lead before their bullpen collapses, allowing their opponents to score runs almost at will during the late innings.

Story of the season, right? The Cubs either can't score or can't keep a lead because of a faulty bullpen. Except - EXCEPT! the Cubs won last night. Wha' happen'd?

This team has a new fire in them, is what happened. Ok, ok, maybe it also has to do with playing in Colorado "where no lead is safe", as the cliche goes. Whatever the reason is, I still feel like this team has more cojones than I was originally lead to believe.

There was a time earlier in the year where I also felt that way - that no lead was safe against the Cubs. Then, I was proved wrong. But before I get proved wrong again - and I might - let's just come back to earth for a second. Nomar spelled sideways is NOT "Jesus." Nomar isn't The Savior. He is a spark, and a great bat, and solid defense (last night's error not included), and a confidence boost to the Cubs. But sooner or later the good feeling Nomar gives the team will fade away a bit. Sooner or later he won't get a hit, or score a run, or drive in an RBI. Sooner or later, the Cubs will lose two or even three straight.

I'm just saying, let's not get too high about the team now, and let's not allow that first losing streak or Nomar's first slump to get us down too low. Whether you're a pessemist or not, you have to admit the team is trying and that there are a lot of great tools there. They absolutely can win the Wild Card, and after that, everything is up for grabs.

Just don't forget that when you start coming down a bit from this unatural Nomar high.

And can you believe that Dusty has Sammy batting fourth? Wasn't everyone of the opinion that Sammy would pitch a terrible fit if Dusty asked him to move down in the lineup? Maybe it's a precurser for moving Nomar into the three-spot (as Alou might not be an upgrade from Sammy), although I wouldn't mind seeing Nomar in the two-hole for the remainder of the year.

LOOKING FOR ADVICE AND OTHER RANDOM RAMBLINGS

So. As stated in previous posts, my brother is a tremendous Red Sox fan. For his birthday (and for Christmas, for that matter) I bought him a bunch of the McFarlane baseball Red Sox figures.



Of course, my brother currently hates Nomar. If you missed an earlier post, he called Nomar a "whining bitch." And did I mention that his birthday is in three days? So, I'm torn. Do I give him the Nomar figure, or do I keep it for myself? He'll still have Manny, Pedro, Lowe, and Schilling.

Any advice on what to do with the Nomar figure would be much appreciated.

GETTING BETTER

(to the tune of the Beatles song)

It's getting better all the time
I used to get mad at my team
The guys who played there weren't cool
Keeping me down, turning me around,
Pissing me off 'cause they'd lose.
I've got to admit it's getting better
It's a little better both near and far,
I have to admit it's getting better,
Getting better since the Cubs traded for Nomar.

It seems as if even the most downcast pessemist feels better about the Cubs these days. Even in Colorado, Nomar received a standing ovation.

I guess we've forgotten that the team still needs help out of the bullpen, and unless Corey performs a Christ-like miracle, they don't have a leadoff hitter. However, the pen looks like it could be getting better (all the time), and I guess that's something, too.

CUBS-ROCKIES

The Cubs are in Colorado tonight doing battle with the mighty Colorado Rockies. It should be a series the Cubs win - if not sweep but we'll see how that goes. Perhaps my view is slanted, but it seems to me that any time the Cubs face soft-tossing pitchers with high ERAs, they do everything possible to give the suffering pitcher a confidence boost by letting him walk all over them.

Tonight's suffering pitcher is former Cubs lefty Jeff Fassero. The Cubs have had terrible luck against lefties this year, but Fassero is old. He is apparently trying to assume Jesse Orosco's role of old-time-lefty-who-just-won't-quit-even-if-he-sucks. Alas, Fassero is only 41 and is also doing battle with Terry Mulholland over that title, so it is yet unclear if either has what it takes to replace Orosco in the mindset of baseball fans everywhere.

I'll be watching tonight's game with Carolyn. Here's to a solid Cubs victory.

NOMAR, DAY 2

As some of you may recall, I have an older brother who bleeds Red Sox red. He lives in the middle of nowhere (Missoula, Montana)and hadn't heard of the trade until my sister called him up yesterday. His response? "If the Cubs want that whining bitch, they can have him." So, I guess not every Red Sox fan needs to be talked down from the ledge. Then again, it's pretty likely that my brother is just eating a hefty portion of Denial Pie.

Maddux missed a shot at 300 yesterday. You really have to respect the guy. He knows his limits, and I seriously doubt he'll ever stay in a game too long. Where a lot of pitchers lie to their coaches and themselves, Mad-Dog knows when he's finished, and would rather leave the game than hurt the team's chances of winning.

There's still a lot of talk about what number Nomar will wind up with. Yesterday he wore #8, which made me feel great pride as 8 is my favorite number, and has been ever since Andre Dawson sported it more than a decade ago. I've gotten sick of seeing backup catchers and Alex Gonzalez disgracing that number, and I hope Nomar sticks with it.

If not, I would reckon he'll buy #5 off of Barrett any day now.

I now believe the Cubs can win the Wild Card. Hell, I'll go so far as to say that they can come within three or four games of the division. Nomar makes sense not only because of his bat, but because acquiring a player of his stature is enough to give a boost to every other guy on the team. Now that the players know that the organization wants them to win, they very well might play a little harder. I am wondering if and when Sammy will begin spewing jealousy. Sammy's been the Big Dish in Chicago for a loooong time. He's suddenly fallen into second stature, and either he'll mope and pout about it, or he'll crank it up a notch to regain some of the attention (like the attention whore he is).

The Cubs failed to address their need for a closer. That's the one disappointment of the deadline, but I think it's been pretty well squealched by everything else. Hopefully Dempster will prove to be a great relief pitcher in the coming weeks, and hopefully he'll assume the closer duties come September. LaTroy is just too iffy, especially in a post season situation.

On paper, Nomar will probably bring between two and three additional wins to the team over the coming months. In reality, I expect his teammates to play better with him in the clubhouse, and hopefully that will add two or three more wins.

Regardless, just like that the Cubs got themselves one of the best infields in the National League. It's still not as good as the Cardinals infield, but it's good.