Is it Spring Training Yet?

What? It's still December? Well $%#@! me in the goat ass.

Nothing is worse than being greeted in December by temperature in the upper 50's, because nothing makes you want Spring Training more than a pleasant day.

Winter is the time for the Endless Potential, isn't it? In December when you look at a guy, you don't see his numbers accurately. Much like that illusional oasis off in the desert, you don't see that the guy your team just signed will probably struggle to get on base 30% of the time, or that the pitcher they just acquired is going to wind up making Shawn Estes look good. Take the Reds for example. They just signed Cory Liddle to a one year deal. When they look at it, many Reds fans are going to see two statistics. 3.59 ERA in 188 innings in '01, and 3.89 ERA in 192 innings in '02. They will ignore his age (31), his 20-25 record over the last two seasons, and they will especially ignore his 5.75 ERA last year.

Actually that's the type of deal I'm used to the Cubs making. Surprisingly, the Cubs haven't made any real bad deals this off season. Sure, there have been some questionables. I will continue to question the resigning of Grudz until he finishes the '04 season with an average in the .280 region and an OBP of .360 or better. I'll question Barrett's acquisition until he proves he can hit when healthy, or better yet, when he winds up being the backup to Pudge next year. But tit for tat, Hendry hasn't made any real bonehead deals yet.

Of course when it all comes apart in July we'll be questioning him and second guessing, but let's remember that one beautiful moment in December when even the most hardened and cynical fans were longing for spring.

Merry Christmas, Cub Fan Nation

It's December 24th and it appears as though the roster for next season is about complete. The Cubs surprised us all by signing second baseman Todd Walker to a one year deal at 1.75 million. This is a good deal - they got him cheap, and he should provide a good bat. Insurance for Grudz, plus their splits are pretty good.

Grudz vs. lefties, 2001-03: 302 avg 361 obp 453 slg
Wallker vs. righties, 2001-03: 303 avg 363 obp 457 slg

Chances are these guys are going to be our leadoff hitters in '04.

I still think this is the sort of deal the Cubs are known to make, and not a big Game Breaker that we Cub fans have never really ever seen. However Hendry has done what he set out to do - he drastically improved the club at first, and he also has improved the pen and the bench. Barring unforseen circumstances, the Cubs are going to win more games next season in my opinion.

The real X Factor in the coming seasons is the age of the rotation. It is both good and bad that our pitchers are so young. It's good because there's no reason Prior, Wood, and Zambrano won't improve next season - and drastically, if possible. No one has hit their ceiling yet.

It's bad because as young as they are, and with as much work as they saw, there's a risk of injury. Wouldn't be a fitting kick in our collective ballsacks if one or two of our great young pitchers suffer serious, career-threatening arm injuries? That'd be fate saying "see, that'll teach you to get hopeful that the Cubs will ever be good!" right before applying another knee shot to our kidneys.

So, no expectations. But it's possible - just possible, mind you - that the Cubs have the start of something damned good.

More moves

The Cubs shored up some lackluster but still important holes in the roster today. Instead of forcing the pen to go with young lefty Felix Sanchez (thankfully; we Cub fans have had bad luck with guys named "Felix") they signed left handed reliever Kent Mercker. And instead of forcing the team to go with young left fielder Dave Kelton (...uh, we've had trouble with "Daves?") the Cubs signed veteran outfielder Todd Hollandsworth.

It's weird to say that Mercker is the YOUNG lefty in the pen - he's 35, but last season he pitched above and beyond expectations - with a 1.95 ERA in 55.1 innings. Actually I think this move is relatively questionable - Mercker had a 6.14 ERA in '02 (which admittedly was in Colorado) and while missing the entire '01 season, in '00 Mercker had a 6.52 ERA. The good news is, he's only costing the Cubs somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.2 million, so he's a fairly cheap risk.

While I admit I did have this little fantasy in my mind of David Kelton being groomed to replace Moises in '05, Hollandsworth isn't a bad choice to be the 4th outfielder. He can play all three outfield positions and has power. Plus he was a man Lenny Harris surely envied in '03 - he lead all hitters with a .351 avg off the bench.

This evokes the question: where are we now payroll wise? Do we have the money for a Javy or a Pudge?

At this point in time, the following players are arbitration eligible: P's Joe Borowski, Kyle Farnsworth, and Kerry Wood. C's Paul Bako and Michael Barrett. 1B's Derek Lee and Randall Simon, and 2B Ramon Martinez. I think we can guesstimate that Bako and Simon are gone. I'm going to guess that Farnsworth will make 1.5 million, Borowski 1.2, Kerry Wood 10, Derek Lee 6.5, Ramon Martinez 1.5, and Barrett probably around 2.0.

That puts our arbitration guys at 22.7.

The rest of the rotation will make the following, according to the Cub reporter: Prior 2.1, Clement 6.0, Zambrano 1.0 (a fair guess to the raise the Cubs will give him), and at this point Cruz .50. That puts the rotation at 9.6 million.

The bullpen: Mercker 1.2, Hawkins 4.0, Remlinger 3.55 for a total of 8.75

The infield: Miller 3.0, Grudz 2.5, Ramirez 6.0, Gonzalez 5.5, for a total of 17.0.

The outfield: Hollandsworth 1.0, Alou 9.5, Patterson .60 (guesstimate) Goodwin .65, Sosa 16.00, for a total of 27.75.

So, with one more position to fill in the bullpen and another in the infield, the Cubs are currently paying the '04 team 85.8 million. I guess we can expect Wellmeyer to get his shot in the pen, and I don't know who will play the other infield position but he'd have to be cheap.

Theoretically the Cubs are going to deal Damien Miller to the A's but that still doesn't give them the money to bring in a Pudge or a Javy, so unless the Cubs have been lying to us about how much money they have to spend, the current team is what we'll get come spring time.

I think they can compete. I don't think they'll win anything, unless our pitching busts out in a big way.

Barrett a Cub

The Cubs traded a Player to be Named Later to the A's for former Expos catcher Michael Barrett.

Barrett was injured for much of last year and hit 10 homeruns in 200+ at bats. He also only made 2.6 million. This pretty much ends our fantasy discussions about Javy or Pudge in a Cubs uniform.

I think this trade sucks. I can understand why the Cubs did it - a cheaper alternative and still a potential upgrade at catcher from Miller/Bako. This is really par for the course for the Cubs typical off season activities, and now my hopes that they'd actually upgrade with a GOOD player somewhere besides first is nil. The Cubs are done with the major upgrades.

Things are starting to look like the Cubs are going to fall flat in '04. All it takes is one major injury to the rotation, or a series of nagging ones. The Cubs offense is NOT that much better from last year and I don't expect similar production from Grudz or Alou.

Yeah, I'm pissed. Hendry, you suck.

Maybe a disappointing year will teach the team to dish out the $$.

sign WOOD to a LONG term deal

We're getting close to the time in which the Cubs either have to sign Kerry Wood to a long term deal, or let him go ala Greg Maddux.

Speculation is that Wood is asking for something in the range of 50 million over 4 years. Some feel this is too much for a guy who has never won more than 14 games a year. I disagree.

Aside from bringing a huge set of balls to the table, Wood is a leader and a guy you can count on in clutch games. Also, while 12 million might be a big number, I think it's within range of a pitcher of his caliber. I remember a few years ago when Matt Morris signed with the Cardinals, a buddy of mine told me that if Wood could pitch 200 innings a season, he'd ask for similar money. Morris makes 12 million a year. Also there was speculation that Wood was holding off based on what Colon would get on the market - he got about 12 million a year.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Wood is better than Matt Morris and Bartolo Colon. I think Wood's typical win total is deceptive - I believe he is the recipient of poor run support coupled with a questionable bullpen. More telling is his ERA - 3.20 in '03, never higher than 3.67 except for the year he was recovering from arm surgery.

Likewise while Wood walks a fair number of guys, he also gives up few hits per game - he ranked 2nd last year with a .203 batting average against, and his Walks/Hits Per Innings Pitched was still in the top 10.

My point is, Wood isn't Pedro Martinez, but he's not asking for Pedro Money. But what he's asking for IS consistant with what other pitchers of his caliber receive, and I for one will be hugely disappointed if the Cubs issue him walking papers instead of a contract.

Chicago Pudge

CubsTalk is reporting that the Cubs are close to an agreement with Pudge Rodriguez. I'm a little antsy about this because I haven't read it anywhere else - neither ESPN nor Cubs.com is reporting it. However, if the price is right I'm all for a 3 year deal with Pudge.

There are definitely risks. He's 32 and has had injury problems. His power numbers have been declining. Before this past season with Florida, there was rampant speculation that he was a very selfish player who didn't even confer with his pitchers before a game (so therefore he couldn't possibly handle a good young rotation like what the Cubs have).

One post season MVP award later, I think there's a different opinion on Pudge. And so far as I've seen, the market on catchers this off season is weak - Javy is around, but no one is jumping to sign either of these guys. The Orioles have had a reported interest as well, but for the most part it seems that Pudge's post season ramage was fueled by crack cocaine - because he has to be smoking crack to think anyone is going to sign him to 4 years at $10 million or more a year.

Regardless, I think Pudge would look great in a Cubs uniform - much as I think he'd make a good #2 hitter in the lineup (sorry Sloth, gotta disagree with you on that one.) He had an OBP of .369 last year and usually gets on base at a .350 clip or higher. It's not GREAT but it's better than our other choice in Corey Patterson.

Buy me a Series, Pops

(rant)Let's consider the history of the Cubs organization. Well, aside from how the club was founded by the guy who was the driving force in major league baseball, it really gets interesting when the club was bought by the Wrigley family in the 1916. William Wrigley was a wealthy man who loved baseball, and it's not a coincidence that the Cubs saw their most prosperous time as a club during his tenure as owner. He hired William Veeck - yes, the Veeck family has been prominent in baseball since the 20's, and Veeck shrewdley ran the club. I guess you could say that the FIRST Wrigley and Veeck made the team a powerhouse in the first half of the century.

Then, in 1932 William Wrigley died. He handed the team over to his son PK Wrigley with one request - never sell the team. The younger Wrigley was a shrewed businessman, but he didn't like baseball. He didn't spend money on the team, he especially didn't spend money on the farm system, and for a long time any time the Cubs actually developed a guy he'd SELL him to other teams!

PK, however, is responsible for the Wrigley Field experience. You've heard the term "welcome to Beautiful Wrigley Field..." it was a PK Wrigley mandate that it was Beautiful Wrigley Field, not just Wrigley Field. Anyway, Wrigley had two major effects on the Cubs. He is the reason the team royally sucked ass in the latter half of the 20th century (with the one exception of the Leo the Lip years - his one truly sound baseball move) and he is also the reason we Cubs fans are diehard lovers of the Wrigley Field experience. PK told us and our parents and their parents to experience and enjoy Beautiful Wrigley Field - but there wasn't much talk about enjoying the actual game.

Anyway, PK Wrigley died in 1977. The team was passed down to Bill Wrigley, who sold them to the Tribune Corporation on June 16, 1981. Let's talk then, about the Trib.

The Tribune Company is not poor. Not by any standard. They aren't quite as big as Disney, but they rake in billions. To be fair, we have to look at the Cubs as a venture. They are owned by the Tribune but the Trib owes it to their stock holders to not lose money on the club. However, what remains true is they have a sweetheart deal with WGN (owned by the Trib) to broadcast the games. They have a small ballpark but it constantly fills up - and even next year, with ticket increases, you can bet that almost all games will sell out during the summer months.

So why is it that the Cubs - the dominant team in the third largest baseball market owned by one of the largest corporations in America can't spend more than fucking 85 million dollars on a team a year??!! They are #3 on the board but act like a team that's in the middle of the market! They have the means. They have the available talent. Most important, they have a near 100 year track record of losing and being the JOKE OF BASEBALL so WHY won't they just spend the money we all KNOW they have to get the talent that's available?!!

It's not about breaking the bank and signing every top guy, it's about filling the holes in your roster with more than just middle aged journeymen shit players who probably won't get a hit every 4 at bats! And the one thing that truly remains offensive to me is that every single fucking year after a season ends we see these shitbags in in the Tribune write about how the Cubs are going to spend XXX dollars only to see XX dollars promised a week later, only to see X dollars a week after that, and sometimes we still wind up with Y dollars instead!

I would swear to GOD that I read the Cubs were going to get near 100 million for next season back in late September/early October. Then immediately after the NLCS, that number was 95 million. By mid-to-late October it was 90 million. Today that number is 85 million, and the Cubs don't have the money to acquire a top notch catcher or second baseman. Quite frankly they HAVE the money to get BOTH, but I'm just asking for one. All I'm asking is that they get a Pudge OR a Javy OR a Castillo.

But hey, it's alright. They're good. They're going to be good next year. They've got the pitching, and the offense COULD be pretty nice. In baseball there is no sure thing anyway. But damn, it would be nice for once if it was at least a little more LIKELY for them to succeed.

So for those who missed the pun from my last post, "We're Number 2" isn't just in reference to ticket prices for '04. *pant, pant* (/rant) I really have to calm down :oP

We're Number 2!

I read in an article today that with the most recent ticket price increase, the Cubs finally have the second most expensive tickets in baseball. Having also the second smallest ballpark, I say it's about frickin time!

The team with the most expensive seats in baseball are the Red Sox. They are also a team with a payroll of WELL over $100 million. They are in a much smaller market than the Cubs. So my next question is, why can't the Cubs just do us all a favor and bump their payroll up to over $100 million??! It seems like it's the same old song and dance every single year, but this off season there are players available who could fill the holes in the roster. It seems that if the Cubs would SPEND the money and BUY the players, they could actually compete for a pennant next season.

But they won't. It's sort of like having a millionaire parent who insists on giving you a $5 allowance every week.

Maddux a Cub?

I'm all for it. I might've been one of the first to blog about this at the beginning of the off season. I think it would be utterly fantastic if Greg Maddux spent his last two years as a player with the Chicago Cubs. I think then, the Cubs could keep him on as pitching coach. It wouldn't really be redemptive of the Cubs - they blew it on the best pitcher of the 90's - but it would be nice.

It would also be ungodly expensive.

Greg Maddux would surely ask for 7-10 million a year. The Cubs have that kind of bank, but c'mon guys, we know the Tribune, right? They're not going to open up the wallet for Derek Lee, LaTroy Hawkins, Greg Maddux AND also open the wallet for Wood's contract extension, for an upgrade at 2B, for an ugrade behind the plate. It would be an utterly attrocious thing if the Cubs couldn't sign Wood to a multi-year deal because they spent that money bringing back a guy who they at one time couldn't sign to a multi-year deal.

Also, am I the only one to see the Cubs off-season spending drop and drop? I would swear that I read in a legitimate source that the Cubs were spending 95 million for next season. Then I'd swear that I read they'd spend 90 million for next season. Now, I'm almost sure I read something about the Cubs spending around 85 this off season.

What the fark is up with that?! But I guess it doesn't really come as any surprise. In the back of my mind I have this sensation of recognition - as if I'd seen this sort of thing in the past. I think every off season starts off with a promise of an inflated payroll increase, which gradually and quietly decreases by about 10 million before it's all said and done.

Anyway I'm just being paranoid. I'm sure the Cubs will go out and upgrade at either 2B or C before the pre season starts. I'm sure it'll be something we haven't anticipated - ie: through a trade for a younger, cheaper player at either position.

However, if Derek Lee is "it," if he's THE offensive upgrade, we're screwed. Maybe Sammy Sosa will re-elevate next year, but chances are his age is going to catch up with him some more. Maybe Moises will play solid and be healthy, but he's going to be 38 next year and I don't expect a whole lot from him. And who knows if CPat is going to pick up where he left off? As it is, the offense was pretty weak last year. Maybe Lee will make the difference, but I'd feel a whole LOT better with one more solid offensive addition.

I would actually be totally ok with letting Cruz struggle in the #5 spot if it meant the Cubs had a solid leadoff hitter next year. But if Hendry can pull off Maddux AND a decent 2B... well, I'd be a believer.

BTW - I read in the Sun Times today that Grudz has about five more days to accept the Cubs alleged offer for 3 million a season (for I don't know how many years), and I have reason to believe he won't take it. If he doesn't, he is insane. I think 3 million is at least 1 million too much for the guy.

If not Grudz, the Cubs might make a comparable offer to Vina or Walker.

But yeah, reacquiring Maddux would be cool.

Hawkins a Cub

LaTroy Hawkins is... uh, well, he's a Cub (ok, so that's redundant). Word has it that he signed a 3 year deal that could be worth as much as 15 million with incentives. My brother called me to spread the news - he actually sounded really excited about it and he's not even a Cubs fan.

This gives the Cubs some room to mess around with the bullpen. They could now trade Kyle "50 Cent" Farnsworth for Vidro as the Sloth has suggested, or they could keep Kyle and arguably have a deep and penetrating bullpen (we should be used to things involving Farnsworth to be deep and penetrating - ok, maybe just penetrating).

I'm actually leaning at keeping 50 Cent because I think he's an incredibly effective reliever in situations where the game isn't on the line. But send him in during a clutch situation with runners on and less than two outs and between the switch I have a running debate on getting an antiacid or a shot of whiskey.

This really isn't a bad move, even if the Cubs spent a bit much on Hawkins. You'd think he'd've offered a hometown discount, as he is reportedly a Cubs fan.

Also word has it that the Cubs haven't been able to move Gonzalez. If the team intends on improving the lineup, they really need a good hitting second baseman or catcher, and I still don't think they're going to upgrade at either position.

But hey, Hendry has yet to sign his first Danny Jackson, so I still trust that he'll pull of a move of some sort.

Damn

ESPN has announced that Castillo has resigned with the Marlins. Three years, 16 million, 2 million signing bonus, and an option year based on plate appearances.

Of the good choices remaining, I guess that leaves Jose Vidro, assuming that the Sloth is right and the Expos will deal him. He's no leadoff hitter, however, but he is an All Star second baseman. And I suppose he could bat leadoff in a pinch... he's got a good career OBP, but no speed.

Otherwise, our options include Todd Walker, Fernando Vina, and G-Man. Walker will be 31 next year, batted .283, hit 13 homeruns and drove in 85 RBI with an obp of .333. Vina missed most of last year, but batted .251 in limited action. In '02, he batted .270 with a .333 obp, hit 1 homerun and stole 17 bases. And he'll be 35 next year.

I think I said earlier that I expect Hendry to do something worthy but unexpected. I think at this point if he acquires a new 2B it'll be through trade, not through free agency. However of the bunch remaining, there isn't really a pristine choice. It's almost worth signing G-Man, Vina, or Walker because they'll be cheaper and that will allow for Hendry to spend more money elsewhere - like at upgrading at catcher (and at this point, upgrading at that position is a luxery, not an expectation).

As it stands, I am 90% disappointed that the Cubs didn't nab Castillo. The 10% comes from a Wait and See stance that I'm going to take - if they still adequately upgrade at second, it's fine. If they sign one of the three previously mentioned vets, it's also fine - as long as they upgrade at catcher and/or short stop instead. But at LEAST one more DRASTIC upgrade is still needed in order for me to actually believe that the team can compete next year.

Jim, you've got my faith for now. But you should know - until you win the Big One, you will always be walking a very fine line with me and many other Cubs fans. My memory is short, and the first time you sign a Fernando Vina or a Todd Walker and herald it as the last piece of the puzzle, I will immediately forget that you drafted our star players, that you made the quality trades bringing in our corner infielders, that you build a surprise team that came 5 outs from winning the pennant last year. One screw up and you are an Ed Lynch to me.

And this, of ALL times, is not the right time to screw up.

I spit on slugging percentage

And so, my wildest dreams are tantemizingly close to coming true. The Cubs are officially in the running to sign leadoff second baseman Luis Castillo. Presently he is being offered somewhere in the ballpark of 15.5 million over 3 years.

This is for a guy who will be 28 for most of next season. His career batting average is .292. Career obp - .367, and although he only stole 21 bases in 40 attemps this past season, the previous four years he'd stolen 50, 62, 33, and 48.

So why shouldn't the Cubs sign him? Ruz over at the Cub Reporter (my favorite Cub blog, btw - no offense sloth or forklift) points out that Castillo's slugging is below his obp .355 on the career, a difference of -12. However, in his case I don't think it matters. To me, Castillo represents the ideal leadoff guy. He can get on base - maybe not as often as the best, but more often than most leadoff hitters in the league. He can steal those bases - in a different year, he's a league leader. And let's not forget that he's not a bad defensive second baseman either.

Maybe it's overpaying, but I say screw it - give him 4 years, 22 million. No one will match that, and he'll only be 32 when the contract ends - hardly a long term liability. It's not often that a quality second baseman in his prime becomes available to you. Even rarer is when he can fill that valuable leadoff spot.

For me, it's a no brainer. Otherwise, who do you wind up with next year? Vina? The guy's in his mid 30's and seriously declining. Grudz again? Wasn't last year enough of a lucky fluke? Who else is available who could do what Castillo could do as a Cub?

In my mind I see a lineup looking like Castillo, Patterson, Lee, Sosa, Alou, Ramirez, etc. etc. When's the last time the Cubs had three guys at the top of the lineup who could steal 20+ bases in a year? I think part of what made the Marlins world champions last year (aside from their phenominally surprising pitching) was that any time a guy got on base with less than two outs, you expected something to happen. Speed can still win games.

I'll take Castillo please.